Industrial metals find support amid potential Chinese stimulus – TDS

Optimism around potential new Chinese stimulus to be announced at the July third plenum is helping industrial metal prices find some support after the recent bout of weakness, TDS commodity strategists note.

Metals seem strong despite weakening environment

“Our gauge of commodity demand is weakening amid a precarious global macro landscape, and our return decompositions across the complex confirm the demand side is finally starting to weigh heavy on the metals as the early summer euphoria fades.”

“In Copper, our return decomposition framework is also showing a major drag from idiosyncratic factors, such as positioning. This suggests that the red metal could still be prone to additional downside in the near-term as bloated positions are cut.”

“On the Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) front, the Red Metal could see some length added back at prices above $9,769/t, while Aluminium, Zinc, Lead and Nickel were all able to withstand the pressure without triggering CTA selling, and could all see modest buying on the recovery with the nearest triggers to the upside.”