Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD moves below $30.50 due to hawkish sentiment surrounding Fed

Source Fxstreet
  • Silver price continues to lose ground as FOMC Minutes suggest the Fed to be hawkish on policy stance.
  • Fed policymakers are concerned as inflation has proven to be more persistent than expected at the start of 2024.
  • The safe-haven asset, Silver, may receive support as tensions escalate between China and Taiwan.

Silver price extends its losses for the second consecutive session, trading around $30.30 per troy ounce during the early European hours on Thursday. The price of the grey metal plunged as non-yielding assets lost ground as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes indicated hawkish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy stance.

Fed policymakers expressed concerns about the lack of progress on inflation, which has proven to be more persistent than expected at the start of 2024. As a result, the Fed is hesitant to proceed with interest rate cuts. Traders' sentiment now indicates increasing uncertainty about the Fed making multiple rate cuts in 2024.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve implementing a 25 basis-point rate cut in September has seen a slight downtick to 50.7%, compared to 51.6% a day ago. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins stated that progress toward interest rate adjustment will take longer and emphasized that patience is the right policy for the Fed, per Reuters.

The safe-haven asset, Silver, may experience an increase in demand as tensions escalate following Lai Ching-te's assumption of office as Taiwan's new president. Chinese state media reports indicate that China has deployed numerous fighter jets and conducted simulated strikes in the Taiwan Strait and around groups of Taiwan-controlled islands. Geopolitical tensions often lead to uncertainty and risk aversion, which typically drive investors toward precious metals, including Silver.

XAG/USD

Overview
Today last price 30.28
Today Daily Change -0.50
Today Daily Change % -1.62
Today daily open 30.78
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 28.43
Daily SMA50 27.28
Daily SMA100 25.13
Daily SMA200 24.21
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 32.2
Previous Daily Low 30.76
Previous Weekly High 31.6
Previous Weekly Low 27.97
Previous Monthly High 29.8
Previous Monthly Low 24.75
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 31.31
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 31.65
Daily Pivot Point S1 30.29
Daily Pivot Point S2 29.8
Daily Pivot Point S3 28.84
Daily Pivot Point R1 31.73
Daily Pivot Point R2 32.69
Daily Pivot Point R3 33.18

 

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changedRate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 23, Wed
Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
placeholder
Four jobs reports in five days: what JOLTS, ADP, claims and the September payrolls mean for the October Fed decisionThe US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.
Author  Mitrade
Sep 28, Mon
The US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.
placeholder
Nvidia's $150 billion buyback landed — and the AI sector fell anyway. That's the signal worth tradingNvidia closed up 1.68% at $228.86 on 28 September after announcing a $150 billion share repurchase authorisation, the largest single corporate buyback on record, while the rest of the AI complex sold off: AMD -3.6%, Micron -2.6%, Meta -4.8% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -1.61%. The divergence is not noise. Capital is rotating toward cash-flow certainty, not abandoning the AI theme. With Micron reporting after the close on 30 September, here is what the split means.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 29, Tue
Nvidia closed up 1.68% at $228.86 on 28 September after announcing a $150 billion share repurchase authorisation, the largest single corporate buyback on record, while the rest of the AI complex sold off: AMD -3.6%, Micron -2.6%, Meta -4.8% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -1.61%. The divergence is not noise. Capital is rotating toward cash-flow certainty, not abandoning the AI theme. With Micron reporting after the close on 30 September, here is what the split means.
placeholder
【Daily Brief】The dollar ground higher for six days — and the AUD fell 2% in the very week the RBA hiked to a 15-year highThe dollar index held above 101 while the Australian dollar slid to a two-month low of 0.6976, a 2.02% six-session loss, even though the RBA raised rates to 4.60% and Australian CPI printed 4.0%. The yen is the only major currency gaining, ahead of Japan's monthly intervention tally at 7pm JST.
Author  Irene Q.
19 hours ago
The dollar index held above 101 while the Australian dollar slid to a two-month low of 0.6976, a 2.02% six-session loss, even though the RBA raised rates to 4.60% and Australian CPI printed 4.0%. The yen is the only major currency gaining, ahead of Japan's monthly intervention tally at 7pm JST.
placeholder
【Daily Brief】30-year Treasury tops 5.59%, S&P 500 slips to 7,670 and gold holds $4,180 — PCE lands tonightThe 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.59%, its highest since June 2002, and the Dow fell 131.59 points to 51,349.92. US consumer confidence dropped to 81.9, a 12-year low, and JOLTS job openings fell to 7.1 million. August PCE and Q3 GDP both land at 8:30am ET tonight.
Author  Suzie
18 hours ago
The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.59%, its highest since June 2002, and the Dow fell 131.59 points to 51,349.92. US consumer confidence dropped to 81.9, a 12-year low, and JOLTS job openings fell to 7.1 million. August PCE and Q3 GDP both land at 8:30am ET tonight.
Related Instrument
goTop
quote