Geopolitical Disruptions, OPEC+ and Russia’s Oil Production Game, 2026 International Crude Oil Price Trends?

TradingKey - For international investors, international crude oil prices are more than just a "barometer" of the global economy and a "touchstone" for geopolitics; they are also tangible investment opportunities and risk signals. The crude oil market in 2026 is facing a structural challenge of "supply-demand mismatch." Although geopolitical conflicts occasionally trigger impulse rallies, U.S. production expansion, OPEC+ the battle for market share, and slowing global economic growth bring more uncertainty to the direction of international oil prices in 2026.

Since the beginning of 2026, London Brent crude futures prices briefly broke the $70 per barrel mark, hitting a new high since September 2025, while the WTI crude oil main continuous contract showed a trend of "oscillating upward before retreating" between January and February, climbing from around $57 per barrel to over $66 before falling back to hover around $63. Behind this volatility is the interplay of supply-side competition, geopolitical disturbances, the pace of global economic recovery, and the combined effect of numerous hidden variables.

Who holds the pricing power over "Black Gold"?

The core logic of the international crude oil market is "supply-demand balance" and as the "supply side," its production adjustments, inventory changes, and oil-producing nations' policies directly determine the "floor support" and "ceiling pressure" of oil prices. However, in 2026, the keyword for the international crude oil market is "ample supply."

Core players in global crude oil supply are mainly divided into two camps: "OPEC members" represented by Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Venezuela, and "non-OPEC producing countries" represented by the U.S., Russia, and Canada. The production decisions of these two camps directly impact the global supply landscape.

From the "OPEC+" camp, after Saudi Arabia gradually phased out production cuts in 2025, it led the supply growth among OPEC+ producers. Entering 2026, although production in some Middle Eastern OPEC countries saw slight declines, the overall supply tone is tilted toward "mildly loose."

Russia, as the world's second-largest oil producer, despite continuous attacks on its energy infrastructure, saw a significant rebound in domestic refinery operations and exports in December 2025. Crude oil production increased by 550,000 barrels per day month-on-month, reaching a nearly 33-month high.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that following a 3-million-barrel-per-day increase in global oil supply in 2025, global supply could further increase by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026 to reach 108.7 million barrels per day. Non-OPEC producers are expected to contribute 1.3 million barrels per day of that growth, accounting for nearly 60% of the total increase. This means that "loose expectations" on the supply side will persist in 2026, putting long-term pressure on oil prices.

Geopolitics becomes the core of short-term oil price disturbances

Geopolitics is a "core short-term variable" affecting international crude oil prices. Turmoil in major oil-producing regions such as the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Latin America often triggers market concerns over "supply disruptions," driving impulse rallies in oil prices.

Since the beginning of 2026, geopolitical tensions have intensified, becoming a major driver perturbing oil prices. The subsequent evolution of the situation remains key to determining short-term price fluctuations.

The U.S. short-term strike against Venezuela focused on "precise supply blockades," directly causing a sharp drop in Venezuelan crude exports. Combined with geopolitical panic in the market, this became a significant catalyst for short-term gains in international oil prices.

Specific data shows that the U.S. seized Venezuelan tankers and implemented a comprehensive tanker embargo in December 2025, leading to a massive decline in Venezuelan crude oil exports. By December 2025, exports had fallen by 280,000 barrels per day month-on-month to 550,000 barrels per day, and plunged further to approximately 300,000 barrels per day by early January 2026—a drop of over 45% compared to late 2025. The suppressive effect of the sanctions was immediately apparent.

Despite continuous attacks on its energy infrastructure, Russia has maintained export stability and even achieved a production rebound by adjusting export routes and increasing discounts, becoming an "unexpected variable" on the supply side in 2026.

Weak global economic recovery in 2026 may suppress crude oil demand

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and IEA forecasts, the global economic growth rate in 2026 will remain around 3.5%, showing a pattern of "mild recovery." Compared to 2025, the global growth rate will slow slightly, but overall resilience remains strong. In particular, economic recovery in non-OECD countries will be the core driver of global growth and will spur demand for crude oil.

Looking at major economies, the U.S. economy will maintain a "weak recovery" trend. The impact of U.S. tariff hikes in 2025 is gradually fading as the market adapts to changes in trade patterns, leading to a slow rebound in consumption and investment demand. However, the ongoing effects of high-interest-rate policies will continue to restrain growth. The U.S. economy is expected to grow between 2.0% and 2.5% in 2026, with corresponding crude oil demand showing "mild growth."

The IEA's Oil Market Report published in January 2026 raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026, expecting it to increase by 930,000 barrels per day on average—higher than the previous forecast of 860,000 barrels and the 2025 increase of 850,000 barrels per day. The core reasons for the growth in demand are the global economy's gradual adaptation and recovery from the impact of 2025 U.S. tariffs, alongside a demand rebound driven by falling international oil prices.

International investment banks are bearish on 2026 oil price performance

Goldman Sachs emphasized in its 2026 annual outlook report that 2026 will see the largest wave of non-OPEC+ supply in the past decade. Despite tighter financing conditions, AI-driven drilling technology has boosted single-well production by 15%, supporting sustained output growth. Long-cycle projects in Guyana, Brazil, and Canada will enter full production in 2026, creating "inelastic supply" that cannot be easily eliminated through production cuts.

J.P. Morgan warned in its report that if oil prices are suppressed below $65 for an extended period, the cohesion within OPEC+ will face a major test. If the UAE or Saudi Arabia chooses to "increase production to protect revenue" in a bid for market share, the market could see a repeat of the 2014 or 2020 price crashes. J.P. Morgan even offered an extreme forecast that if extreme oversupply occurs, oil prices could risk dropping as low as $30 by 2027.