Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD remains sideways near $27.60 as investors reassess Fed rate cut bets

Source Fxstreet
  • Silver price consolidates around $27.60 as traders reprice Fed rate cut hopes.
  • Sticky US inflation will feed expectations for Fed delaying rate cuts.
  • Investors see the Fed keeping interest rates steady next week.

Silver price (XAG/USD) remains stuck in a tight range around $27.60 in Friday’s American session. Traders reassess expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts as the United States core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) for March remain higher than the consensus.

The annual underlying inflation data rose by 2.7% from the estimates of 2.6% but decelerated from the prior reading of 2.8%. On a month-on-month basis, price pressures grew in line with expectations and the prior reading of 0.3%. Price pressures remaining higher fuel expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining a hawkish monetary policy framework.

The scenario is favorable for the US Dollar and bond yields but weighs on non-yielding assets, such as Silver. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounds from 105.40 amid expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for a longer period. The Fed sees rate cuts appropriate only when they get evidence that inflation will return to the desired rate of 2%. 10-year US Treasury yields are down 1.15% to 4.65%.

Meanwhile, investors shift focus to the Fed’s interest rate decision, which will be announced on May 1. The Fed is anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50%. Though the Fed is expected to maintain the status quo, investors will focus on guidance on interest rates.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price corrects to near March 2022 high near $27.00 after failing to extend upside above the crucial resistance of $30.00. The near-term appeal for Silver seems uncertain as it struggles to sustain near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $27.20.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) shifts into the 40.00-60.00 range from the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, suggesting that the bullish momentum has faded for now.

Silver daily chart

XAG/USD

Overview
Today last price 27.44
Today Daily Change 0.01
Today Daily Change % 0.04
Today daily open 27.43
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 27.46
Daily SMA50 25.33
Daily SMA100 24.24
Daily SMA200 23.76
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 27.58
Previous Daily Low 26.98
Previous Weekly High 29.02
Previous Weekly Low 27.62
Previous Monthly High 25.77
Previous Monthly Low 22.51
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 27.35
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 27.21
Daily Pivot Point S1 27.08
Daily Pivot Point S2 26.74
Daily Pivot Point S3 26.49
Daily Pivot Point R1 27.67
Daily Pivot Point R2 27.92
Daily Pivot Point R3 28.27

 

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
US dollar clings to nine-week lows near 98.4 as Brent nears $100 and the yen hits a seven-month high — five events to watch todayThe dollar is pinned near nine-week lows even after a blockbuster jobs report, as an oil spike toward $100, a surging yen and China's reflation data crowd the driver's seat. Five key events to watch today: Brent at $99.46, USD/JPY at 154, China CPI/PPI, PBOC gold buying, and Thursday's PPI / Friday's CPI ahead of the September 15-16 FOMC.
Author  Eric Nkando
Sep 09, Wed
The dollar is pinned near nine-week lows even after a blockbuster jobs report, as an oil spike toward $100, a surging yen and China's reflation data crowd the driver's seat. Five key events to watch today: Brent at $99.46, USD/JPY at 154, China CPI/PPI, PBOC gold buying, and Thursday's PPI / Friday's CPI ahead of the September 15-16 FOMC.
placeholder
US August CPI lands tonight: after a 5.4% PPI shock, will the Fed hike on September 16?US August PPI came in at 5.4% year-on-year, above the 5.3% consensus, with core PPI at 4.6%. Traders have pushed the odds of a 25bp Fed hike on September 15-16 to around 70%. Tonight's CPI is the last major inflation print before the decision — here is the full calendar, the consensus numbers, and what a hot versus cool reading would mean for the dollar, yields, gold and stocks.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 11, Fri
US August PPI came in at 5.4% year-on-year, above the 5.3% consensus, with core PPI at 4.6%. Traders have pushed the odds of a 25bp Fed hike on September 15-16 to around 70%. Tonight's CPI is the last major inflation print before the decision — here is the full calendar, the consensus numbers, and what a hot versus cool reading would mean for the dollar, yields, gold and stocks.
placeholder
Brent tests $108 as a key export pipeline stays shut — can the rally clear $110?Brent crude rose 2.55% to $106.97 and WTI 2.32% to $102.30 as a major regional export pipeline remained offline with no restart timeline. Front-month backwardation has widened to $5.53 from $3.84 a week ago, European gas is at its highest since December 2022, and one analyst sees $119.48 if talks stall.
Author  Irene Q.
19 hours ago
Brent crude rose 2.55% to $106.97 and WTI 2.32% to $102.30 as a major regional export pipeline remained offline with no restart timeline. Front-month backwardation has widened to $5.53 from $3.84 a week ago, European gas is at its highest since December 2022, and one analyst sees $119.48 if talks stall.
placeholder
Fed hike odds near 90% into Wednesday's decision — how to trade the dollar, gold and the S&P 500A 0.3% monthly core CPI print has lifted the market-implied probability of a 25bp Fed hike on 16 September to roughly 86.5% ~ 90%, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Here is the decision timeline, the pricing versus the forecasts, both scenarios, and the key levels for the dollar, gold and the S&P 500.
Author  Suzie
19 hours ago
A 0.3% monthly core CPI print has lifted the market-implied probability of a 25bp Fed hike on 16 September to roughly 86.5% ~ 90%, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Here is the decision timeline, the pricing versus the forecasts, both scenarios, and the key levels for the dollar, gold and the S&P 500.
placeholder
Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls to near $63.50 amid Fed hike bets, higher oil pricesSilver price (XAG/USD) loses its gains from the previous day, trading around $63.50 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Monday. Non-yielding Silver is currently facing significant headwinds driven by rising Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike expectations for the upcoming September decision.
Author  FXStreet
16 hours ago
Silver price (XAG/USD) loses its gains from the previous day, trading around $63.50 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Monday. Non-yielding Silver is currently facing significant headwinds driven by rising Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike expectations for the upcoming September decision.
Related Instrument
goTop
quote