Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD recovers above $28.50 despite multiple tailwinds
Source Fxstreet
- Silver price bounces back to $28.50 even though investors expect Middle East tensions won’t escalate further.
- US bond yields rally amid uncertainty over Fed rate cut timing.
- Upbeat US Retail Sales boost demand for the US Dollar.
Silver price (XAG/USD) finds strong buying interest near $27.50 after correcting from fresh highs of $29.80. The white metal rebounds to $28.50 in Monday’s American session but struggles to extend recovery as investors expect that Middle East tensions will not escalate further.
Iran said we don’t want to raise tensions in the Middle East further. Their administration added, “the matter deemed to be closed.” However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe, the Wall Street Journal reported. Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden said it won’t support the counterattack from Israel. On Saturday, Iran launched hundreds of drones and missile on the Israeli state.
Meanwhile, higher bond yields due to deepening uncertainty about when the Federal Reserve (Fed) will pivot to rate cuts is barricading the Silver price from further upside. 10-year US Treasury yields rise to 4.65%.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) extends its upside to 106.20 after upbeat US Retail Sales data for March. The US Census Bureau reported that Retail Sales rose strongly by 0.7% from expectations of 0.3% but the pace was slower than the prior reading of 0.9%, upwardly revised from 0.6%.
Silver technical analysis
Silver price recaptures a three-year high near $30.00. The long-term outlook of the Silver price is extremely bullish as the 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $25.00, is sloping higher. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) shifts into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, suggesting that a bullish momentum is active.
Silver weekly chart
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Bitcoin briefly loses 2025 gains as crypto plunges over the weekend.Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
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