Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD flirts with record highs above $2,230, all eyes on US PCE data

Source Fxstreet
Mar 29, 2024 02:52
  • Gold price hovers around $2,230, nearly record highs in Friday’s Asian session. 
  • The prospect of interest rate cuts from the US Fed and the ongoing geopolitical tensions lift the yellow metal.
  • The hawkish Fed comments and robust US economy data might cap the gold’s upside. 
  • Investors will closely monitor the US February PCE data, due on Friday.  

Gold price (XAU/USD) flirts with record highs around $2,230 during the Asian session on Friday. The uptick of yellow metal is bolstered by the safe-haven flows amidst growing economic concerns and the prospect of interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). However, the easing expectations for the Fed rate cuts might lift the US Dollar (USD) and cap the upside of USD-denominated gold. 

Gold gains momentum as investors anticipate three rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year. The Fed held its benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a range between 5.25%-5.50% for the fifth consecutive time last week. Furthermore, the central bank still expects three quarter-percentage point cuts by the end of the year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in nearly 63% odds that the Fed will cut interest rates in June. It’s worth noting that lower interest rates generally weaken the USD, making gold cheaper to investors holding other currencies.

Furthermore, the ongoing geopolitical risk in the Middle East might boost traditional safe-haven assets like gold. The Palestinian Red Crescent said that Israeli forces besieged two more Gaza hospitals on Sunday, pinning down medical teams under heavy gunfire.

On the other hand, a combination of hawkish Fed comments and robust US economy data might weigh on the gold price. Many Fed officials remain cautious about easing too soon. On Wednesday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that there was “no rush” to Fed bank President Raphael Bostic stated that he now sees just one quarter-point rate cut this year, down from the two cuts that he had previously estimated. 

Most markets are closed for Good Friday, but the US February Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data will take center stage on Friday. The Core PCE, Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is projected to show an increase of 0.3% in February.

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price 2234.24
Today Daily Change 0.00
Today Daily Change % 0.00
Today daily open 2234.24
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 2163.93
Daily SMA50 2080.93
Daily SMA100 2051.64
Daily SMA200 1989.35
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 2236.27
Previous Daily Low 2187.44
Previous Weekly High 2223.22
Previous Weekly Low 2146.16
Previous Monthly High 2065.49
Previous Monthly Low 1984.26
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 2217.62
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 2206.09
Daily Pivot Point S1 2202.36
Daily Pivot Point S2 2170.49
Daily Pivot Point S3 2153.53
Daily Pivot Point R1 2251.19
Daily Pivot Point R2 2268.15
Daily Pivot Point R3 2300.02

 

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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