Gold price oscillates just below range upper limit at $2,200, bullish potential seems intact
- Gold price fails to capitalize on its weekly gains registered over the past three days.
- The overnight hawkish remarks by Fed’s Waller act as a headwind for the XAU/USD.
- The downside seems limited as traders await more cues about the Fed’s rate-cut path.
Gold price (XAU/USD) continues with its struggle to make it through the $2,200 mark and oscillates in a range during the Asian session on Thursday. The overnight hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller cooled rate cut hopes and pushed the US Dollar (USD) back closer to the monthly top. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the non-yielding yellow metal, though any meaningful slide seems elusive as traders await more cues about the Fed's policy path before placing fresh directional bets.
Last week, the Fed projected a less restrictive monetary policy going forward and indicated that it remains on track to cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2024. That said, the incoming US macro data suggested that the economy is in good shape and pointed to still-sticky inflation, which should allow the Fed to keep rates higher for longer. Hence, Friday's release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index will influence expectations about the Fed's rate-cut path, which will drive the USD and provide fresh impetus to the Gold price.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price struggles to lure buyers amid mixed fundamental cues
- Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller said on Wednesday that he was in no hurry to cut rates in the wake of hotter inflation readings in recent months, boosting the US Dollar and capping gains for the Gold price.
- Waller, however, noted that further expected progress on lowering inflation will make it appropriate for the Fed to start cutting interest rates later this year, which is seen acting as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal.
- Moreover, the Fed last week projected three interest rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of this year, and the markets are currently pricing in a greater chance of the first move at the June FOMC monetary policy meeting.
- Apart from this, geopolitical risks stemming from the protracted Russia-Ukraine war and the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East should help limit any meaningful corrective decline for the safe-haven precious metal.
- Traders now look to Thursday's US economic docket – featuring the release of the final Q4 GDP print, the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales and the revised Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
Technical Analysis: Gold price needs to find acceptance above $2,200 for bulls to regain control
From a technical perspective, the range-bound price action witnessed over the past two weeks or so might be categorized as a bullish consolidation phase against the backdrop of a blowout rally since the beginning of this month. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in the positive territory and support prospects for an eventual breakout to the upside. Some follow-through buying back above the $2,200 mark will reaffirm the constructive setup and allow the Gold price to retest the record high, around the $2,223 region touched last week.
On the flip side, any corrective decline now seems to find some support near the overnight swing low, around the $2,173 area ahead of the $2,164-2,163 zone. This is followed by the lower end of the short-term trading range, around the $2,146-2,145 region, which, if broken, might prompt aggressive technical selling. The Gold price might then accelerate the fall to the next relevant support near the $2,128-2,127 region en route to the $2,100 round-figure mark. The latter should act as a strong base, which, if broken, will suggest that the XAU/USD has topped out in the near term.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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