USD/CAD holds steady near 1.3700, US-China trade talks in focus
- USD/CAD trades flat around 1.3700 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
- US and China will continue trade talks into a second day.
- Easing trade tensions and upbeat US May employment data could support the US Dollar.
The USD/CAD pair trades on a flat note near 1.3700 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Cooling tensions between the US and China could provide some support to the Greenback. US-China trade talks will extend to a second day and will be closely monitored.
A US official said that trade talks between the world’s two largest economies will continue into a second day. The US indicated a willingness to remove restrictions on some tech exports in exchange for assurances that China is easing limits on rare earth shipments. Easing trade tension could lift the US Dollar (USD) against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) in the near term.
Furthermore, the stronger-than-expected US May employment report gave the US Federal Reserve (Fed) a way to caution, which might also boost the Greenback. Federal Fund Futures pointed to a larger possibility that the Fed may keep its benchmark interest rate steady until the September monetary policy meetings.
On the other hand, a rise in Crude Oil prices might underpin the commodity-linked Loonie and act as a headwind for the pair. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, and higher crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the CAD value.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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