AUD/USD retreats sharply from 0.6500, back inside the consolidation range
- AUD/USD trades around 0.6435, down nearly 1% on the day.
- Early Asian gains erased as the pair weakens through European and US sessions.
- DXY rebounds to 100.50 after slipping below 100.00 amid Tuesday’s soft US CPI.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is trading near 0.6435 against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, down almost 1%, after failing to break above the 0.6500 psychological level. The pair reversed sharply from the session high and has slid back into its familiar consolidation range, reflecting renewed pressure on the Aussie.
The pair edged higher during the Asian session after Australia’s Q1 wage growth data beat expectations, with wages rising 3.4% YoY versus a 3.2% forecast. However, the upside was short-lived as the US Dollar regained ground in European and US trading hours.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell below the key 100.00 mark earlier on Wednesday, extending the bearish reaction to Tuesday’s softer-than-expected US CPI data, but later recovered modestly to trade near 100.50 as traders refocused on upcoming US economic releases.
Meanwhile, market expectations remain firm for a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at its May 20 meeting, with the ASX RBA Rate Tracker indicating a 54% probability of a 50-basis point cut. This stands in contrast to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious hold, reinforcing the monetary policy divergence narrative.
Market participants' eyes will be on Thursday’s key US data, including PPI, retail sales, jobless claims, and a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which could shape near-term rate expectations and further influence the USD trajectory.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Recommended Articles
