EUR: 1.1250 is the risk for EUR/USD – ING

The very modest dollar bounce has seen EUR/USD trade a little lower. Over recent weeks we had mentioned that an extreme 5-6% risk premium in the dollar could see EUR/USD briefly trade 1.15/16 - which we saw on Monday - but that risk premium is now starting to come out of the dollar as the mood music on trade improves and the President has backed Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

EUR/USD risks a dip under 1.1300 to 1.1250

"Of course, no one has any confidence about how long these calmer conditions will last. What we would say is that some further modest advance in US equities could drag EUR/USD back to the 1.1250 area and it may be there – 1.1250 – where all the 'structural' dollar sellers could re-emerge if you believe Washington's destruction of the rules-based international order has permanently damaged the dollar's status as the leading reserve currency."

"We have our doubts about the above – and have an end-quarter EUR/USD target at 1.13 – but would revise that higher if the US data fell away more quickly and the Fed had to cut more than the 100-125bp currently priced in. There shouldn't be much market moving data today, so EUR/USD risks a dip under 1.1300 to 1.1250 should US equities continue to creep higher."

"Elsewhere, sterling is doing well after another good retail sales figure. EUR/GBP breaking under 0.8520/25 could lead to a much deeper correction."