EUR/USD to consolidate around 1.08-1.09 with upside risks – Danske Bank

Source Fxstreet

EUR/USD holds around 1.08 as Trump imposes auto tariffs and signals lenient reciprocal measures, Danske Bank's FX analyst Jesper Fjärstedt reports. 

USD reaction to tariffs remains uncertain

"Yesterday, we outlined enacted and upcoming tariffs, their direct GDP impact, and potential next steps. The USD reaction remains uncertain, with past tariff impacts so far mixed - lower import demand and inflationary effects offset by growth concerns. Aggressive tariffs could fuel risk-off sentiment, but USD upside is not guaranteed if markets focus on US recession risks." 

"Near term, we expect EUR/USD to consolidate around 1.08-1.09 with upside risks. Given the uncertainty, we see a wide outcome space and look to sell into potential USD rallies on aggressive tariff announcements, as implementation delays may allow room for negotiation and potential reversals of initial market reactions." 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Dollar presses 102 as the 10-year yield sits at 5.14% — and October hike odds are only 17%The dollar index closed at 101.99 (+0.20%) on Monday after briefly topping 102.07, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.14% and the 2-year hit 4.774% — yet futures price only about a 17% chance of a hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, versus roughly 90% for December. The driver is a global bond selloff, not a Fed repricing: France's 10-year OAT jumped to 4.84% ~ 4.94% and the OAT-Bund spread widened to 140 ~ 146bp. Here are the levels, the cross-asset read-through and what to watch.
Author  Irene Q.
Oct 20, Tue
The dollar index closed at 101.99 (+0.20%) on Monday after briefly topping 102.07, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.14% and the 2-year hit 4.774% — yet futures price only about a 17% chance of a hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, versus roughly 90% for December. The driver is a global bond selloff, not a Fed repricing: France's 10-year OAT jumped to 4.84% ~ 4.94% and the OAT-Bund spread widened to 140 ~ 146bp. Here are the levels, the cross-asset read-through and what to watch.
placeholder
Tesla Q3 Earnings Preview: Can Auto Margins Stabilize? Wall Street’s Highest Price Target at $550Tesla (TSLA) will report its third-quarter 2026 financial results after the U.S. stock market close on October 21, Eastern Time, and host an earnings conference call at 17:30 that day. Th
Author  TradingKey
Oct 20, Tue
Tesla (TSLA) will report its third-quarter 2026 financial results after the U.S. stock market close on October 21, Eastern Time, and host an earnings conference call at 17:30 that day. Th
placeholder
The Dow gained 500 points and the two AI names that matter fell after hours — Netflix's guide is the tellThe Dow closed 529.85 points higher at 52,495.88 (+1.02%) and the VIX fell 6.13% to 17.31, but the two stocks that carry the AI trade moved the other way after Tuesday's close: Netflix slipped to $64.74 (-5.8%) after guiding Q4 EPS of $0.67, below the street, while SpaceX jumped about 8% to near $160 on its first profit as a public company and revenue up 161%. Netflix is now below its 52-week low of $65.08. Here are the numbers, the $65 / $70 levels and the two catalysts that matter this week.
Author  Irene Q.
Yesterday 05: 56
The Dow closed 529.85 points higher at 52,495.88 (+1.02%) and the VIX fell 6.13% to 17.31, but the two stocks that carry the AI trade moved the other way after Tuesday's close: Netflix slipped to $64.74 (-5.8%) after guiding Q4 EPS of $0.67, below the street, while SpaceX jumped about 8% to near $160 on its first profit as a public company and revenue up 161%. Netflix is now below its 52-week low of $65.08. Here are the numbers, the $65 / $70 levels and the two catalysts that matter this week.
placeholder
Gold Price Analysis Today | Forex Gold Analysis | XAU/USD Analysis - October 22, 2026Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for October 22, 2026. Read on for the details.
Author  Mitrade
8 hours ago
Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for October 22, 2026. Read on for the details.
placeholder
The Fed will sit still on October 28 — but 100 of 100 economists now expect a December hikeA Reuters poll run October 16-20 found 94 of 100 economists expecting the Fed to hold at 3.75-4.00% on October 28 — and all 100 expecting a hike in December, against less than half a month earlier. The market is close to the same price, with CME FedWatch at roughly 17% for October and 82.8% for December. With the Fed in blackout since October 17, here are the five dates that decide the rest of the year, what each one is priced for, and the two directions each can take.
Author  Irene Q.
4 hours ago
A Reuters poll run October 16-20 found 94 of 100 economists expecting the Fed to hold at 3.75-4.00% on October 28 — and all 100 expecting a hike in December, against less than half a month earlier. The market is close to the same price, with CME FedWatch at roughly 17% for October and 82.8% for December. With the Fed in blackout since October 17, here are the five dates that decide the rest of the year, what each one is priced for, and the two directions each can take.
Related Instrument
goTop
quote