EUR/USD to consolidate around 1.08-1.09 with upside risks – Danske Bank

EUR/USD holds around 1.08 as Trump imposes auto tariffs and signals lenient reciprocal measures, Danske Bank's FX analyst Jesper Fjärstedt reports. 

USD reaction to tariffs remains uncertain

"Yesterday, we outlined enacted and upcoming tariffs, their direct GDP impact, and potential next steps. The USD reaction remains uncertain, with past tariff impacts so far mixed - lower import demand and inflationary effects offset by growth concerns. Aggressive tariffs could fuel risk-off sentiment, but USD upside is not guaranteed if markets focus on US recession risks." 

"Near term, we expect EUR/USD to consolidate around 1.08-1.09 with upside risks. Given the uncertainty, we see a wide outcome space and look to sell into potential USD rallies on aggressive tariff announcements, as implementation delays may allow room for negotiation and potential reversals of initial market reactions."