USD/INR extends its upside, eyes on Indian WPI data
- Indian Rupee trades soft as the higher-than-expected US inflation data boosts the US Dollar.
- The hawkish stance of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) might cap the INR’s downside for the time being.
- India’s Wholesale Price Index (WPI) Food, Fuel, and Inflation for January will be in the spotlight on Wednesday.
Indian Rupee (INR) loses traction on Wednesday amid the firmer US Dollar (USD). The uptick of the pair is supported by stronger-than-expected US inflation data, which prompts investors to further push back expectations on when the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut its interest rate.
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) stated that it desires to see inflation return to 4%, the midpoint of the 2-6% target. The markets anticipate the Indian central bank to maintain a hawkish stance in the near term and not cut rates ahead of the Fed. This, in turn, could provide some support to the INR and act as a headwind for the USD/INR pair.
Investors await India’s Wholesale Price Index (WPI) Food, Fuel, and Inflation for January, due on Wednesday. The markets expect to see a cooling down of WPI inflation from 0.73% in December to 0.53% YoY in January. On the US docket, Fed’s Goolsbee and Barr are set to speak about the inflation and interest rate outlook. The Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) for January will be released later this week on Thursday and Friday, respectively.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Indian Rupee remains fragile on the back of renewed USD demand
- The Indian Retail Inflation declined to a three-month low of 5.1% in January from 5.69% in December, above the consensus of 5.09%, according to the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation.
- India needs to grow at 7%–8% annually in order to become a developed nation with USD 13,000 per capita income by 2047, former RBI Governor C. Rangarajan said on Tuesday.
- Union Minister, Hardeep Singh Puri, praised India's economic growth, citing a robust expansion of 2.6% in the last three quarters.
- The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation softened to 3.1% YoY in January from 3.4% in December, beating the market expectation of 2.9%. On a monthly basis, the headline CPI rose 0.3% MoM from 0.2% in the previous reading.
- The Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, climbed 3.9% YoY in the same period, above the market consensus of 3.7%. The monthly Core CPI rose 0.4% MoM in January from a 0.3% rise in December.
- Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that the US inflation rate will fall to "the lower twos" by the end of this year, down from 3.4% in December.
Technical Analysis: Indian Rupee weakens further against the US Dollar
Indian Rupee trades in negative territory on the day. USD/INR remains range-bound within a descending trend channel of 82.70–83.20 since December 8, 2023.
In the short term, USD/INR resumes its uptrend as the pair returns above the key 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily timeframe. The bullish momentum is also supported by the 14-day Relative Strength Index, which lies above the 50.0 midline, hinting that further upside looks favorable.
Sustained bullish momentum above the upper boundary of the descending trend channel at 83.20 might make its way back to the next upside barrier at 83.35 (high of January 2), en route to the 84.00 psychological level.
The resistance-turned-support level at 83.00 will be the first downside target to watch for USD/INR. The next contention level is seen at a low of February 2 at 82.83. Any follow-through selling below this level could set off a drop to the next potential support near the lower limit of the descending trend channel at 82.70, followed by 82.45 (low of August 23).
US Dollar price today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
| USD | -0.04% | -0.08% | -0.06% | -0.17% | -0.15% | -0.26% | -0.15% | |
| EUR | 0.05% | -0.03% | -0.01% | -0.12% | -0.11% | -0.20% | -0.09% | |
| GBP | 0.09% | 0.04% | 0.03% | -0.08% | -0.06% | -0.16% | -0.06% | |
| CAD | 0.05% | -0.02% | -0.03% | -0.12% | -0.09% | -0.21% | -0.09% | |
| AUD | 0.16% | 0.12% | 0.09% | 0.12% | 0.01% | -0.08% | 0.02% | |
| JPY | 0.14% | 0.08% | 0.04% | 0.11% | -0.04% | -0.12% | 0.00% | |
| NZD | 0.26% | 0.22% | 0.18% | 0.21% | 0.10% | 0.12% | 0.17% | |
| CHF | 0.13% | 0.08% | 0.06% | 0.09% | -0.04% | -0.02% | -0.12% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
Indian Rupee FAQs
What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee?
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee?
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee?
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee?
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
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