GBP: Calm restored – ING

Friday’s session seemed to signal that some calm has been restored in the gilt market, and that favoured a EUR/GBP decline back below the 0.8400 mark, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

BoE to announce its policy on Thursday

“Our short-term fair value model shows a rather modest risk premium of around 0.6% in EUR/GBP at the moment. As discussed last week, the pound and gilt markets are unlikely to face a rerun of the post-2022 mini budget crisis, but some gradual repricing higher in gilt yields on the back of wider expected borrowing can still weigh on the pound along the way.”

“On Thursday, the Bank of England announces policy and a 25bp is widely expected. Markets will probably be more interested in hearing what the MPC has to say about last week’s budget. While the Office for Budget Responsibility sees the announced fiscal measures are both pro-growth and inflationary, our UK economist does not expect them to significantly alter the BoE’s view.”

“For now, Governor Andrew Bailey may focus on the recent drop in services inflation and could try to drive the attention away from the budget and back to data. That could be read as a dovish signal for BoE rate expectations, and there is probably room for more easing to be added to the GBP swap curve, which is currently pricing in 32bp over the next two meetings. A dovish repricing can weigh on the pound this week, but should it also come with some lower long-end gilt yields, some inflows into sterling markets can offset selling pressure on GBP.”