EUR: More on the recent EUR recovery – Commerzbank
Source Fxstreet
If you look at the G10 exchange rate movements since October 24 (since the publication of the euro area PMIs), it is striking that, on the one hand, the Euro has been by far the best-performing currency, but on the other hand, it has been the currency that contributed least to the volatility of G10 exchange rates, Commerzbank’s Head of FX and Commodity Research Ulrich Leuchtmann notes.
EUR strength to end sooner or later
“What does it mean when a currency has covered a lot of ground but with low volatility? It cannot have moved much in the opposite direction. Indeed, the euro has appreciated against the G10 average on every single trading day since then.”
“In other words: we are observing a clear trend (for statisticians: a clear deterministic trend component). In a reasonably efficient market, this is not a permanent condition, but an indication that the market is undergoing a significant re-evaluation and is searching for new equilibrium levels for EUR exchange rates.”
“As much as I enjoy EUR strength, I have to admit that this phase should not last forever. At some point, the revaluation of the euro will be complete. I would even consider it quite bold to jump on the bandwagon of idiosyncratic EUR strength at this point.”
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
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