EUR/JPY Price Prediction: Meeting brick wall of resistance at range ceiling
Source Fxstreet
- EUR/JPY continues trying but failing to breakout above the top of a range.
- MACD is diverging bearishly with price and there is a strong possibility of decline unfolding.
EUR/JPY is meeting a brick wall of resistance at the top of its ten-week range and despite repeated attempts has not been able to breakout higher.
EUR/JPY 4-hour Chart
The pair is in an overall range-bound market – its trend is sideways. Since it is a principle of technical analysis that trends tend to extend, the odds favor a continuation of the range.
This suggests that the next move for EUR/JPY will be back down towards the range floor in the 154s.
A move below 161.91 (October 8 low) would help confirm such a move was underway. A break below the trendline for the up leg at around 161.70 (black line on chart) would provide stronger confirmation. The next downside target for EUR/JPY would be at about 158.32 – the October 1 as well as September 30 lows.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) momentum indicator is diverging bearishly with price (red dotted lines on chart). Whilst price has been making slightly higher highs with each breakout attempt, MACD has been declining. This is a further warning sign of losses to come.
Alternatively, it is possible that a decisive break above the range highs would indicate a breakout higher and the evolution of a new short-term uptrend. A decisive move would be one characterized by a longer-than-average green candlestick which cleared the range high and closed near its high, or three green candles in a row breaking above the top of the range.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
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