EUR/JPY rises above 157.00, shrugs off poor ZEW report

Source Fxstreet
  • EUR/JPY ignores weaker-than-expected ZEW data from the Eurozone and Germany, buoyed by USD/JPY strength.
  • Positive US Retail Sales figures drive the USD/JPY higher, despite no clear indications of the Fed’s rate cut size ahead of the FOMC meeting.
  • ECB Member Simkus dismisses a rate cut in October, while analysts speculate the BoJ could raise rates to 0.50% by year’s end.

The EUR/JPY trades in the green, up by 0.48%, shrugging off worse-than-expected ZEW data from the Eurozone (EU) and Germany. The recovery of the USD/JPY pair boosted the pair. At the time of writing, the cross-pair trades at 157.28 after touching a low of 156.05.

EUR/JPY climbs to 157.28 as strong US Retail Sales data weighs on Japanese Yen

Data from the United States (US) underpinned the USD/JPY after Retail Sales exceeded estimates of -0.2% contraction, expanded by 0.1% MoM in August. Although the data is positive, failed to provide hints on the size of the Federal Reserve rate cut on Wednesday.

Markets reacted positively to the announcement as Wall Street extended its gains, and the Greenback recovered ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision.

In addition, the EU ZEW Survey of Expectations dipped to an eleven-month low, from 17.9 to 9.3 in September, marking the third consecutive month of deterioration amid ongoing uncertainty about the economic outlook and monetary policy direction.

In the meantime, European Central Bank (ECB) Member Gediminas Simkus said the economy is developing as foreseen and disregarded a rate cut in October.

On the Japanese Yen front, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hold its latest monetary policy meeting. The consensus suggests the BoJ will stay put, yet analysts at Standard Chartered suggest that rates could reach 0.50% by year’s end.

EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Given the fundamental backdrop, the FOMC’s meeting could weigh on both countries. If the Fed’s decision triggers a risk-off environment, look for further downside on the EUR/JPY pair.

However, as of writing, the cross has cleared the Tenkan-Sen at 157.46. It aims to challenge the Senkou Spa A at 158.49, but first, traders should reclaim 158.00. If those levels are cleared, the next stop would be the Kijun-Sen at 159.51.

On further weakness, the EUR/JPY could retest the latest trough at 155.14, the September 16 daily low.

Euro PRICE Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

  USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD   0.08% 0.15% 0.74% 0.01% -0.18% 0.13% 0.23%
EUR -0.08%   0.07% 0.63% -0.10% -0.28% 0.05% 0.16%
GBP -0.15% -0.07%   0.58% -0.13% -0.35% -0.01% 0.06%
JPY -0.74% -0.63% -0.58%   -0.72% -0.91% -0.60% -0.52%
CAD -0.01% 0.10% 0.13% 0.72%   -0.19% 0.13% 0.20%
AUD 0.18% 0.28% 0.35% 0.91% 0.19%   0.31% 0.39%
NZD -0.13% -0.05% 0.01% 0.60% -0.13% -0.31%   0.07%
CHF -0.23% -0.16% -0.06% 0.52% -0.20% -0.39% -0.07%  

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Bitcoin Slides 5% as Sellers Lean In — Can BTC Reclaim $88,000?Bitcoin has dropped back below $88,000 after rolling over from $90,500, with price still trading under the 100-hour Simple Moving Average. The sell-off found a floor at $85,151, and BTC is now consolidating near that base, but rebounds are facing pressure from a bearish trend line around $89,000. Bulls need to retake $88,000–$89,000 to ease downside risk; failure to do so keeps $85,500–$85,000 and then $83,500 in play, with $80,000 as the deeper “line in the sand.” Bitcoin (BTC) is back in damage-control mode after a sharp pullback wiped out recent gains. The price failed to reclaim the $90,000–$90,500 band, rolled over, and slid through $88,500 before briefly dipping under $87,000. Buyers did show up around $85,000, but the rebound so far looks more like stabilization than a clear trend reversal. Bitcoin dips hard, finds a bid near $85,000(h3) BTC’s latest move lower began when it couldn’t build follow-through above $90,000 and $90,500. Once that upside stalled, sellers took control and pushed price down through $88,500. The slide accelerated enough to spike below $87,000, but the market didn’t free-fall. Bulls defended the $85,000 zone, printing a low at $85,151. Since then, Bitcoin has been consolidating below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the $93,560 swing high to the $85,151 low — a clue that the bounce is still shallow and that sellers haven’t fully backed off yet. Structurally, BTC is still on the back foot: It’s trading below $88,000, and It remains below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average, keeping short-term trend pressure pointed downward. Resistance is layered, and $89,000 is the problem area(h3) If bulls try to turn this into a recovery, they’ll have to climb through multiple ceilings in quick succession. First, BTC faces resistance around $87,150, followed by a more meaningful barrier near $87,500. From there, the market’s attention snaps back to $88,000 — the level BTC just lost and now needs to reclaim. A close back above $88,000 would improve the tone, but it doesn’t solve the bigger issue: there’s a bearish trend line on the hourly BTC/USD chart (Kraken feed) with resistance near $89,000, which also lines up with the next technical hurdle. If BTC can push through $89,000 and hold, the rebound could extend toward $90,000, with follow-through targets at $91,000 and $91,500. But until price clears that $88,000–$89,000 zone, rallies are at risk of being sold rather than chased. If BTC fails to reclaim resistance, the downside path is clear(h3) The near-term bear case is simple: if Bitcoin can’t climb back above the $87,000 area and keep traction, sellers may attempt another leg lower. Support levels line up like this: Immediate support: $85,500 First major support: $85,000 Next support: $83,500 Then $82,500 in the near term Below that, the major “don’t break this” level is still $80,000. If BTC slips under $80,000, the risk of acceleration to the downside increases significantly — not because it’s magic, but because it’s the kind of psychological and structural level that tends to trigger forced de-risking. Indicators: momentum still leans bearish(h3) The intraday indicators aren’t offering much comfort yet: Hourly MACD is losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI remains below 50, suggesting sellers still have the upper hand on short timeframes. So while the $85,000 defense held for now, the market hasn’t flipped bullish — it’s just stopped bleeding.
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7 hours ago
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