NZD/USD Price Analysis: Bears take a breather, yet maintain a clear domination
Source Fxstreet
- NZD/USD slightly rebounds, hovering near the 0.5900 mark, but remains under a clear bearish influence.
- The pair lost more than 4% in July, underscoring a strong bearish outlook.
- The 0.5850 area is the last barrier against the sellers.
In Friday's session, the NZD/USD took a slight break from its continual downward trajectory, mildly rebounding to 0.5890. This brief respite comes after a six-day losing streak that led to a significant bearish turnaround for the currency pair. The overall picture still reveals a strongly bearish influence, given the pair lost over 4% in July, and the bearish crossover of the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.6050 with the 100-day SMA, which might just inspire the bears further.
The daily technical indicators continue to signal a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 24, nestled firmly within oversold territory, which indicates intense selling pressure. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) with its flat red bars lends further support to a bearish outlook. As the RSI descends further into the oversold region, there may be a possible corrective momentum on the horizon.
NZD/USD daily chart
From a daily chart perspective, strong support is noticed at the 0.5880 level and slightly below that at May lows around 0.5850. On the flip side, resistance can now be spotted at the former support level of 0.6000, followed by 0.6050.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
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Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
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