AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Continues to fall, awaits possible correction
Source Fxstreet
- AUD/JPY continues its dip, reaching a low below 100, the lowest level since April.
- The short-term bearish trend continues to intensify as the pair records a fifth losing day.
- The 200-day SMA near 100.00 is the last barrier to avoiding further losses.
In Thursday's session, the AUD/JPY pair extended its decline, with a fall of 0.54% to reach 100.55 and hit a low of 99.22. This affirms the control of the sellers and further solidifies the bearish short-term outlook as the pair hits a new seasonal low.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) pair has decreased to 21, pointing toward an ever-increasing bearish momentum. Along with this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to print flat red bars, suggesting a constant selling activity but indicators hinting at oversold conditions may suggest that a correction looms.
AUD/JPY daily chart
Looking at the wider perspective, the short-term bearish momentum of AUD/JPY seems to persevere. After ceding the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), the pair encountered considerable support at the 200-day SMA, where sellers were quickly shunned, hinting at an imminent correction as the pair entered the oversold territory.
Going forward, the pair needs to keep a foothold at the 200-day SMA at 100.00, a strong support level. Other levels to watch on the downside include the areas around 99.50 and 99.30. For any possibility of recovery, buyers should aim to regain the ground above the immediate resistance at 101.00 and then target the 102.70 area where the 100-day SMA converges to offset potential losses.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
