AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Continues to fall, awaits possible correction

Source Fxstreet
  • AUD/JPY continues its dip, reaching a low below 100, the lowest level since April.
  • The short-term bearish trend continues to intensify as the pair records a fifth losing day.
  • The 200-day SMA near 100.00 is the last barrier to avoiding further losses.

In Thursday's session, the AUD/JPY pair extended its decline, with a fall of 0.54% to reach 100.55 and hit a low of 99.22. This affirms the control of the sellers and further solidifies the bearish short-term outlook as the pair hits a new seasonal low.

The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) pair has decreased to 21, pointing toward an ever-increasing bearish momentum. Along with this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to print flat red bars, suggesting a constant selling activity but indicators hinting at oversold conditions may suggest that a correction looms.

AUD/JPY daily chart

Looking at the wider perspective, the short-term bearish momentum of AUD/JPY seems to persevere. After ceding the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), the pair encountered considerable support at the 200-day SMA, where sellers were quickly shunned, hinting at an imminent correction as the pair entered the oversold territory.

Going forward, the pair needs to keep a foothold at the 200-day SMA at 100.00, a strong support level. Other levels to watch on the downside include the areas around 99.50 and 99.30. For any possibility of recovery, buyers should aim to regain the ground above the immediate resistance at 101.00 and then target the 102.70 area where the 100-day SMA converges to offset potential losses.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
【Daily Brief】10-year Treasury yield briefly tops 5%, S&P 500 slips to 7,602 and the dollar firms at 99.3 as the Fed's decision eve beginsThe 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.014% on Monday — its first print above 5% since October 2023 — while the S&P 500 closed 0.48% lower at 7,619.98 and the dollar index firmed to 99.3. Here is the full market wrap ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision, the dot plot and the August retail sales report, plus today's CLARITY Act Senate vote.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 15, Tue
The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.014% on Monday — its first print above 5% since October 2023 — while the S&P 500 closed 0.48% lower at 7,619.98 and the dollar index firmed to 99.3. Here is the full market wrap ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision, the dot plot and the August retail sales report, plus today's CLARITY Act Senate vote.
placeholder
October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changedRate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 23, Wed
Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
placeholder
Four jobs reports in five days: what JOLTS, ADP, claims and the September payrolls mean for the October Fed decisionThe US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.
Author  Mitrade
Sep 28, Mon
The US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.
placeholder
Nvidia's $150 billion buyback landed — and the AI sector fell anyway. That's the signal worth tradingNvidia closed up 1.68% at $228.86 on 28 September after announcing a $150 billion share repurchase authorisation, the largest single corporate buyback on record, while the rest of the AI complex sold off: AMD -3.6%, Micron -2.6%, Meta -4.8% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -1.61%. The divergence is not noise. Capital is rotating toward cash-flow certainty, not abandoning the AI theme. With Micron reporting after the close on 30 September, here is what the split means.
Author  Irene Q.
18 hours ago
Nvidia closed up 1.68% at $228.86 on 28 September after announcing a $150 billion share repurchase authorisation, the largest single corporate buyback on record, while the rest of the AI complex sold off: AMD -3.6%, Micron -2.6%, Meta -4.8% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -1.61%. The divergence is not noise. Capital is rotating toward cash-flow certainty, not abandoning the AI theme. With Micron reporting after the close on 30 September, here is what the split means.
placeholder
The 30-year Treasury just hit a 22-year high — and the bond market is not pricing the Fed, it is pricing the deficitThe 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.56% on 28 September, the highest since June 2004, while the 10-year reached 5.24% and the 20-year 5.60%. The curve has steepened roughly 30bp in eight sessions even as October hike odds sit at 70.3%. That gap is the story: the long end is repricing fiscal and inflation risk, not policy. With PCE on Wednesday and payrolls on Friday, here is what the long end is really saying.
Author  Irene Q.
17 hours ago
The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.56% on 28 September, the highest since June 2004, while the 10-year reached 5.24% and the 20-year 5.60%. The curve has steepened roughly 30bp in eight sessions even as October hike odds sit at 70.3%. That gap is the story: the long end is repricing fiscal and inflation risk, not policy. With PCE on Wednesday and payrolls on Friday, here is what the long end is really saying.
Related Instrument
goTop
quote