USD/CAD stays on sidelines near 1.3800 with BoC policy meeting in focus

Source Fxstreet
  • USD/CAD trades back and forth near 1.3800 ahead of BoC interest rate meeting.
  • The BoC is expected to reduce interest rates further by 25 bps.
  • The uncertainty over US presidential elections has dampened market sentiment.

The USD/CAD pair trades in a tight range near the round-level figure of 1.3800. The Loonie asset consolidates as investors shifts to the sidelines with focus on the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) monetary policy meeting scheduled for 13:45 GMT.

The BoC is expected to deliver subsequent rate cuts due to cooling inflationary pressures. BoC’s core Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated to 1.9% in June but remains below the bank’s target of 2%. Also, Canada’s labor market conditions have deteriorated due to higher interest rates. The central bank is expected to reduce interest rates again by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.5%. Earlier, the BoC pivoted to policy normalization in the June meeting.

Meanwhile, sheer weakness in the Oil price has dampened the Canadian Dollar’s (CAD) appeal. The Oil price remains in the bearish trajectory from past three weeks due to weak demand outlook and easing supply concerns. It is worth noting that Canada is the leading exporter of Oil to the United States (US) and lower Oil prices weakens the Canadian Dollar.

The market sentiment remains risk-averse amid United States (US) political uncertainty. S&P 500 futures have posted significant losses in European trading hours. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, clings to weekly gains near 104.50.

In today’s session, investors will focus on the US S&P Global flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for July, which will be published at 13:45 GMT. The report is expected to show that the Manufacturing PMI expanded at a nominal pace to 51.7 from June’s reading of 51.6. The Services PMI, a measure to activities in the service sector, is estimated to have expanded at a slower pace to 54.4 from the prior release of 55.3.

While the major trigger for the US Dollar will be the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for June, which will be published on Friday. The inflation measure will provide cues about when the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start reducing interest rates.

Economic Indicator

BoC Interest Rate Decision

The Bank of Canada (BoC) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoC believes inflation will be above target (hawkish), it will raise interest rates in order to bring it down. This is bullish for the CAD since higher interest rates attract greater inflows of foreign capital. Likewise, if the BoC sees inflation falling below target (dovish) it will lower interest rates in order to give the Canadian economy a boost in the hope inflation will rise back up. This is bearish for CAD since it detracts from foreign capital flowing into the country.

Read more.

Next release: Wed Jul 24, 2024 13:45

Frequency: Irregular

Consensus: 4.5%

Previous: 4.75%

Source: Bank of Canada

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Bitcoin Slides 5% as Sellers Lean In — Can BTC Reclaim $88,000?Bitcoin has dropped back below $88,000 after rolling over from $90,500, with price still trading under the 100-hour Simple Moving Average. The sell-off found a floor at $85,151, and BTC is now consolidating near that base, but rebounds are facing pressure from a bearish trend line around $89,000. Bulls need to retake $88,000–$89,000 to ease downside risk; failure to do so keeps $85,500–$85,000 and then $83,500 in play, with $80,000 as the deeper “line in the sand.” Bitcoin (BTC) is back in damage-control mode after a sharp pullback wiped out recent gains. The price failed to reclaim the $90,000–$90,500 band, rolled over, and slid through $88,500 before briefly dipping under $87,000. Buyers did show up around $85,000, but the rebound so far looks more like stabilization than a clear trend reversal. Bitcoin dips hard, finds a bid near $85,000(h3) BTC’s latest move lower began when it couldn’t build follow-through above $90,000 and $90,500. Once that upside stalled, sellers took control and pushed price down through $88,500. The slide accelerated enough to spike below $87,000, but the market didn’t free-fall. Bulls defended the $85,000 zone, printing a low at $85,151. Since then, Bitcoin has been consolidating below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the $93,560 swing high to the $85,151 low — a clue that the bounce is still shallow and that sellers haven’t fully backed off yet. Structurally, BTC is still on the back foot: It’s trading below $88,000, and It remains below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average, keeping short-term trend pressure pointed downward. Resistance is layered, and $89,000 is the problem area(h3) If bulls try to turn this into a recovery, they’ll have to climb through multiple ceilings in quick succession. First, BTC faces resistance around $87,150, followed by a more meaningful barrier near $87,500. From there, the market’s attention snaps back to $88,000 — the level BTC just lost and now needs to reclaim. A close back above $88,000 would improve the tone, but it doesn’t solve the bigger issue: there’s a bearish trend line on the hourly BTC/USD chart (Kraken feed) with resistance near $89,000, which also lines up with the next technical hurdle. If BTC can push through $89,000 and hold, the rebound could extend toward $90,000, with follow-through targets at $91,000 and $91,500. But until price clears that $88,000–$89,000 zone, rallies are at risk of being sold rather than chased. If BTC fails to reclaim resistance, the downside path is clear(h3) The near-term bear case is simple: if Bitcoin can’t climb back above the $87,000 area and keep traction, sellers may attempt another leg lower. Support levels line up like this: Immediate support: $85,500 First major support: $85,000 Next support: $83,500 Then $82,500 in the near term Below that, the major “don’t break this” level is still $80,000. If BTC slips under $80,000, the risk of acceleration to the downside increases significantly — not because it’s magic, but because it’s the kind of psychological and structural level that tends to trigger forced de-risking. Indicators: momentum still leans bearish(h3) The intraday indicators aren’t offering much comfort yet: Hourly MACD is losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI remains below 50, suggesting sellers still have the upper hand on short timeframes. So while the $85,000 defense held for now, the market hasn’t flipped bullish — it’s just stopped bleeding.
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3 hours ago
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