AUD/USD: The major support at 0.6590 is set to be breached – UOB Group

Source Fxstreet

The Australian Dollar (AUD) could dip below the major support at 0.6590 but is unlikely to be able to maintain a foothold below this level. Note that below 0.6590, there is another major support at 0.6570, UOB Group FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann.

A breach below 0.6590 leads to 0.6570

24-HOUR VIEW: “Two days ago, AUD fell sharply. Yesterday, we indicated that ‘while the decline appears to be overdone, the weakness in AUD could extend to 0.6620 before stabilisation can be expected.’ We added, ‘the major support at 0.6590 is unlikely to come under threat.’ AUD subsequently fell more than expected to 0.6612. Conditions are severely oversold, but as long as 0.6645 (minor resistance is at 0.6630) is not breached, AUD could dip below the major support at 0.6590. In view of the oversold conditions, it is unlikely to be able to maintain a foothold below this level.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We have held a negative view in AUD since the middle of last week (as annotated in the chart below). Yesterday (23 Jul, spot at 0.6645), we highlighted that ‘further AUD weakness is not ruled out, but given that conditions are approaching oversold levels, the pace of any further decline is likely to be slower.’ We pointed out that ‘the levels to watch are 0.6620 and 0.6590.’ AUD then broke below 0.6620 (low of 0.6612) before closing lower for the seven straight days (0.6616, -0.41%). While we continue to hold a negative view, conditions are severely oversold, and AUD does not seem to have the potential to decline significantly from here. Note that below 0.6590, there is another major support at 0.6570. On the upside, a breach of 0.6675 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 0.6705 yesterday) would suggest the weakness in AUD has stabilised.”

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
US August CPI lands tonight: after a 5.4% PPI shock, will the Fed hike on September 16?US August PPI came in at 5.4% year-on-year, above the 5.3% consensus, with core PPI at 4.6%. Traders have pushed the odds of a 25bp Fed hike on September 15-16 to around 70%. Tonight's CPI is the last major inflation print before the decision — here is the full calendar, the consensus numbers, and what a hot versus cool reading would mean for the dollar, yields, gold and stocks.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 11, Fri
US August PPI came in at 5.4% year-on-year, above the 5.3% consensus, with core PPI at 4.6%. Traders have pushed the odds of a 25bp Fed hike on September 15-16 to around 70%. Tonight's CPI is the last major inflation print before the decision — here is the full calendar, the consensus numbers, and what a hot versus cool reading would mean for the dollar, yields, gold and stocks.
placeholder
Brent tests $108 as a key export pipeline stays shut — can the rally clear $110?Brent crude rose 2.55% to $106.97 and WTI 2.32% to $102.30 as a major regional export pipeline remained offline with no restart timeline. Front-month backwardation has widened to $5.53 from $3.84 a week ago, European gas is at its highest since December 2022, and one analyst sees $119.48 if talks stall.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 14, Mon
Brent crude rose 2.55% to $106.97 and WTI 2.32% to $102.30 as a major regional export pipeline remained offline with no restart timeline. Front-month backwardation has widened to $5.53 from $3.84 a week ago, European gas is at its highest since December 2022, and one analyst sees $119.48 if talks stall.
placeholder
Fed hike odds near 90% into Wednesday's decision — how to trade the dollar, gold and the S&P 500A 0.3% monthly core CPI print has lifted the market-implied probability of a 25bp Fed hike on 16 September to roughly 86.5% ~ 90%, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Here is the decision timeline, the pricing versus the forecasts, both scenarios, and the key levels for the dollar, gold and the S&P 500.
Author  Suzie
Sep 14, Mon
A 0.3% monthly core CPI print has lifted the market-implied probability of a 25bp Fed hike on 16 September to roughly 86.5% ~ 90%, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Here is the decision timeline, the pricing versus the forecasts, both scenarios, and the key levels for the dollar, gold and the S&P 500.
placeholder
Gold falls below $4,300 as higher US yields bolster Fed rate hike betsGold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $4,295 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal faces some selling pressure as rising bond yields and surging energy prices strengthen expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates this week. 
Author  FXStreet
23 hours ago
Gold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $4,295 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal faces some selling pressure as rising bond yields and surging energy prices strengthen expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates this week. 
placeholder
【Daily Brief】10-year Treasury yield briefly tops 5%, S&P 500 slips to 7,602 and the dollar firms at 99.3 as the Fed's decision eve beginsThe 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.014% on Monday — its first print above 5% since October 2023 — while the S&P 500 closed 0.48% lower at 7,619.98 and the dollar index firmed to 99.3. Here is the full market wrap ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision, the dot plot and the August retail sales report, plus today's CLARITY Act Senate vote.
Author  Irene Q.
16 hours ago
The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.014% on Monday — its first print above 5% since October 2023 — while the S&P 500 closed 0.48% lower at 7,619.98 and the dollar index firmed to 99.3. Here is the full market wrap ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision, the dot plot and the August retail sales report, plus today's CLARITY Act Senate vote.
Related Instrument
goTop
quote