AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Downward pressures resume, pair closes its weakest week since April
Source Fxstreet
- AUD/JPY resumes decline, falling to 105.25, marking one of the lowest levels in over a month.
- The recovery experienced on Thursday was short-lived as selling pressures resumed, augmenting the prevalent negative outlook.
In Friday's session, the AUD/JPY pair has resumed its downtrend, declining by 0.20% to reach 105.25. The resumption of this bearish trend suggests that the rebound registered previously on Thursday may have been more corrective rather than indicative of a trend reversal. This sustains the dominance of the bears and reinforces the existing negative outlook as the pair will close a 1.60% weekly loss.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) for AUD/JPY currently stands at 42, slightly below Thursday's value, suggesting a continuation of the negative momentum. The similar pattern in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) that continues to print rising red bars, suggests a continuation of the selling activity, despite the minor rebound seen previously.
AUD/JPY daily chart
On a broader perspective, the AUD/JPY's short-term bearish trajectory seems to persist, with its price remaining below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Looking ahead, immediate support levels appear to have formed around the 105.00 mark, which the buying pressure needs to maintain to fend off a deeper correction. To moderate further potential losses, bulls must aim for the recovery of the 106.00, and subsequently, the 106.50 mark.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
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