AUD: Room to appreciate amid sticky core inflation – UBS

The Australian Dollar (AUD) should appreciate against the US Dollar (USD) and the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) amid sticky core inflation, UBS FX strategists note.

AUD to turn bullish against USD and NZD

“Following the stronger-than-expected inflation data for May, we think a robust labor report and higher quarterly CPI for the second quarter will likely lead to a rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in August. This underpins our recommendation to sell the downside price risks of AUD/USD.”

“We also see an opportunity to go long the AUD versus NZD, as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) made a surprise pivot this week noting deteriorating economic activity and easing inflation.”

“We now expect the RBNZ to cut rates in August, instead of November, and believe the NZD may underperform other G10 currencies.”