EURUSD finishes week near where it started after struggling on Friday

Source Fxstreet
  • EUR/USD rose to 1.08800 after better-than-expected EU HICP inflation.
  • Pair falls back to the week’s opening bids heading into the close.
  • Coming up next week: EU & US PMIs, ECB rate call, US NFP.

EUR/USD struggled to make headway on Friday, splashing around near 1.0850 as the major pair heads into the close within reach of the week’s opening bids on Monday. European Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation rose faster than expected in May, while US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index inflation cooled faster than expected in April. Next week brings a heavy data docket, with Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures on both sides of the Atlantic followed by an anticipated rate call from the European Central Bank (ECB) and another print of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) next Friday.

Pan-European Core HICP inflation rose 2.9% MoM in May, above the 2.8% median market forecast and stretching from the previous month’s 2.7%. A sharp downside miss in German Retail Sales in April limited gains for the Euro after consumer activity declined -1.2% MoM versus the expected -0.1%. However, the previous period saw a sharp upside revision to 2.6% from the initial print of 1.8%.

EUR/USD rallied to an intraday high above 1.0880 in European markets, but backslid during the US market session after US PCE Price Index inflation cooled to 0.2% MoM in April. The figure comes in below the expected hold at 0.3%, driven by a sharp easing in US Personal Spending figures, which fell to 0.2% compared to the forecast 0.3% and falling even further from the previous revised print of 0.7%.

The ECB meets next week for another rate call, and markets are increasingly expecting a first quarter-point rate trim from EU central planners after the ECB steadily raised its Main Refinancing Operations Rate from 0.0% in June 2022 to 4.5% in September of 2023. 

May’s US ISM PMI figures next Monday are expected to recover to 49.8 from 49.2. Next Friday’s US NFP labor figures loom ahead, and median market forecasts are currently expecting 180K net job additions to the US jobs market in May.

EUR/USD technical outlook

EUR/USD spent the week consolidating around a midrange near 1.0850 as the pair churns just north of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average(EMA) at 1.0793. Daily candlesticks are showing sign of bullish exhaustion and the pair could be due for a bearish breakdown towards the 1.0600 handle. Despite a 2.8% recovery from the last swing low, EUR/USD remains down -1.6% from 2024’s opening bids near 1.1035.

EUR/USD daily chart

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price 1.085
Today Daily Change 0.0018
Today Daily Change % 0.17
Today daily open 1.0832
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1.0818
Daily SMA50 1.0772
Daily SMA100 1.0809
Daily SMA200 1.0788
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 1.0845
Previous Daily Low 1.0788
Previous Weekly High 1.0884
Previous Weekly Low 1.0805
Previous Monthly High 1.0885
Previous Monthly Low 1.0601
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0823
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.081
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0799
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0765
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0742
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.0855
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0879
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.0912

 

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Bitcoin has dropped back below $88,000 after rolling over from $90,500, with price still trading under the 100-hour Simple Moving Average. The sell-off found a floor at $85,151, and BTC is now consolidating near that base, but rebounds are facing pressure from a bearish trend line around $89,000. Bulls need to retake $88,000–$89,000 to ease downside risk; failure to do so keeps $85,500–$85,000 and then $83,500 in play, with $80,000 as the deeper “line in the sand.” Bitcoin (BTC) is back in damage-control mode after a sharp pullback wiped out recent gains. The price failed to reclaim the $90,000–$90,500 band, rolled over, and slid through $88,500 before briefly dipping under $87,000. Buyers did show up around $85,000, but the rebound so far looks more like stabilization than a clear trend reversal. Bitcoin dips hard, finds a bid near $85,000(h3) BTC’s latest move lower began when it couldn’t build follow-through above $90,000 and $90,500. Once that upside stalled, sellers took control and pushed price down through $88,500. The slide accelerated enough to spike below $87,000, but the market didn’t free-fall. Bulls defended the $85,000 zone, printing a low at $85,151. Since then, Bitcoin has been consolidating below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the $93,560 swing high to the $85,151 low — a clue that the bounce is still shallow and that sellers haven’t fully backed off yet. Structurally, BTC is still on the back foot: It’s trading below $88,000, and It remains below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average, keeping short-term trend pressure pointed downward. Resistance is layered, and $89,000 is the problem area(h3) If bulls try to turn this into a recovery, they’ll have to climb through multiple ceilings in quick succession. First, BTC faces resistance around $87,150, followed by a more meaningful barrier near $87,500. From there, the market’s attention snaps back to $88,000 — the level BTC just lost and now needs to reclaim. A close back above $88,000 would improve the tone, but it doesn’t solve the bigger issue: there’s a bearish trend line on the hourly BTC/USD chart (Kraken feed) with resistance near $89,000, which also lines up with the next technical hurdle. If BTC can push through $89,000 and hold, the rebound could extend toward $90,000, with follow-through targets at $91,000 and $91,500. But until price clears that $88,000–$89,000 zone, rallies are at risk of being sold rather than chased. If BTC fails to reclaim resistance, the downside path is clear(h3) The near-term bear case is simple: if Bitcoin can’t climb back above the $87,000 area and keep traction, sellers may attempt another leg lower. Support levels line up like this: Immediate support: $85,500 First major support: $85,000 Next support: $83,500 Then $82,500 in the near term Below that, the major “don’t break this” level is still $80,000. If BTC slips under $80,000, the risk of acceleration to the downside increases significantly — not because it’s magic, but because it’s the kind of psychological and structural level that tends to trigger forced de-risking. Indicators: momentum still leans bearish(h3) The intraday indicators aren’t offering much comfort yet: Hourly MACD is losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI remains below 50, suggesting sellers still have the upper hand on short timeframes. So while the $85,000 defense held for now, the market hasn’t flipped bullish — it’s just stopped bleeding.
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