EURUSD finishes week near where it started after struggling on Friday

Source Fxstreet
May 31, 2024 20:21
  • EUR/USD rose to 1.08800 after better-than-expected EU HICP inflation.
  • Pair falls back to the week’s opening bids heading into the close.
  • Coming up next week: EU & US PMIs, ECB rate call, US NFP.

EUR/USD struggled to make headway on Friday, splashing around near 1.0850 as the major pair heads into the close within reach of the week’s opening bids on Monday. European Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation rose faster than expected in May, while US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index inflation cooled faster than expected in April. Next week brings a heavy data docket, with Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures on both sides of the Atlantic followed by an anticipated rate call from the European Central Bank (ECB) and another print of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) next Friday.

Pan-European Core HICP inflation rose 2.9% MoM in May, above the 2.8% median market forecast and stretching from the previous month’s 2.7%. A sharp downside miss in German Retail Sales in April limited gains for the Euro after consumer activity declined -1.2% MoM versus the expected -0.1%. However, the previous period saw a sharp upside revision to 2.6% from the initial print of 1.8%.

EUR/USD rallied to an intraday high above 1.0880 in European markets, but backslid during the US market session after US PCE Price Index inflation cooled to 0.2% MoM in April. The figure comes in below the expected hold at 0.3%, driven by a sharp easing in US Personal Spending figures, which fell to 0.2% compared to the forecast 0.3% and falling even further from the previous revised print of 0.7%.

The ECB meets next week for another rate call, and markets are increasingly expecting a first quarter-point rate trim from EU central planners after the ECB steadily raised its Main Refinancing Operations Rate from 0.0% in June 2022 to 4.5% in September of 2023. 

May’s US ISM PMI figures next Monday are expected to recover to 49.8 from 49.2. Next Friday’s US NFP labor figures loom ahead, and median market forecasts are currently expecting 180K net job additions to the US jobs market in May.

EUR/USD technical outlook

EUR/USD spent the week consolidating around a midrange near 1.0850 as the pair churns just north of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average(EMA) at 1.0793. Daily candlesticks are showing sign of bullish exhaustion and the pair could be due for a bearish breakdown towards the 1.0600 handle. Despite a 2.8% recovery from the last swing low, EUR/USD remains down -1.6% from 2024’s opening bids near 1.1035.

EUR/USD daily chart

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price 1.085
Today Daily Change 0.0018
Today Daily Change % 0.17
Today daily open 1.0832
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1.0818
Daily SMA50 1.0772
Daily SMA100 1.0809
Daily SMA200 1.0788
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 1.0845
Previous Daily Low 1.0788
Previous Weekly High 1.0884
Previous Weekly Low 1.0805
Previous Monthly High 1.0885
Previous Monthly Low 1.0601
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0823
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.081
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0799
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0765
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0742
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.0855
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0879
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.0912

 

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Copper Long-term forecast: Will Copper Price Expected To Soar In 2023?The price of copper is affected by various of factors. You may wonder how the price of cooper will be in 2023, check out our forecast analysis.
Author  Mitrade
The price of copper is affected by various of factors. You may wonder how the price of cooper will be in 2023, check out our forecast analysis.
placeholder
Understanding the first crypto market crash of 2024 and what to expect nextThe 365-day MVRV ratio suggests that this crash may be just the beginning. If the ETF is rejected before the second quarter of 2024, it could trigger a sharp correction.
Author  FXStreet
The 365-day MVRV ratio suggests that this crash may be just the beginning. If the ETF is rejected before the second quarter of 2024, it could trigger a sharp correction.
placeholder
Natural Gas faces upside pressure as European traders prepare for next heating seasonNatural Gas (XNG/USD) prices are holding ground above $2.00 on Friday after a brief dip earlier this week. Gas prices are quickly recovering as mainland Europe is gearing up for the next heating season, with traders starting to negotiate contracts in
Author  FXStreet
Natural Gas (XNG/USD) prices are holding ground above $2.00 on Friday after a brief dip earlier this week. Gas prices are quickly recovering as mainland Europe is gearing up for the next heating season, with traders starting to negotiate contracts in
placeholder
Bitcoin Price’s Path To $300,000 Cleared By Massive Bullish Pattern, Says AnalystAccording to an analysis shared by renowned crypto analyst Gert van Lagen, the Bitcoin price chart has illustrated a significant technical pattern in the 3-day chart (BTC/USD) that could potentially
Author  NewsBTC
According to an analysis shared by renowned crypto analyst Gert van Lagen, the Bitcoin price chart has illustrated a significant technical pattern in the 3-day chart (BTC/USD) that could potentially
placeholder
US Dollar flattens as Powell smashes hopes of quick interest-rate cutsThe US Dollar (USD) trades overall in the green against most peers on Thursday, posting only slight gains, making the US Dollar Index (DXY) trade in a very narrow range.
Author  FXStreet
The US Dollar (USD) trades overall in the green against most peers on Thursday, posting only slight gains, making the US Dollar Index (DXY) trade in a very narrow range.
goTop
quote