GBP/USD trades with mild gains above 1.2700, focus on US PCE data

Source Fxstreet
  • GBP/USD trades with a mild positive bias around 1.2730 on the softer USD on Friday. 
  • The US economy grew at an annualized pace of 1.3% in Q1 versus 1.6% prior. 
  • Markets pared bets on the BoE June rate cuts as the UK April CPI eased at a slower pace than estimates.

The GBP/USD pair edges higher near 1.2730 during the early Asian session on Friday. The USD Index (DXY) faces some selling pressure, and this provides some support to the major pair. Investors will closely monitor the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (Core PCE) for April, which is due later on Friday. 

The US economy grew at a slower pace than initially thought during the first quarter (Q1). The second estimate of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed the economy expanded at an annualized pace of 1.3% in Q1 from 1.6% in the previous reading, in line with market expectations, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday.

Additionally, the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 25 rose to 219K from the previous week of 216K, above the market consensus of 218K. Pending Home Sales dropped to -7.7% MoM in April from 3.6% in March. 

Many Federal Reserve (Fed) officials highlighted the need to keep borrowing costs higher for longer to curb persistently elevated inflation. This, in turn, might lift the Greenback and cap the upside for the pair. The US Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is expected to show an increase of 0.3% MoM in April. This figure might offer some insight into the inflation trajectory. 

On the other hand, the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will start cutting the interest rate from the August meeting might weigh on the Pound Sterling (GBP). Nonetheless, investors lowered their bets on June rate cuts as the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for April showed that price pressures eased at a slower pace than estimates.

GBP/USD

Overview
Today last price 1.2729
Today Daily Change 0.0028
Today Daily Change % 0.22
Today daily open 1.2701
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1.2635
Daily SMA50 1.2581
Daily SMA100 1.2634
Daily SMA200 1.2541
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 1.2772
Previous Daily Low 1.2699
Previous Weekly High 1.2761
Previous Weekly Low 1.2676
Previous Monthly High 1.2709
Previous Monthly Low 1.23
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2727
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2744
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2676
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2651
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2604
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2749
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2797
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2821

 

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changedRate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 23, Wed
Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
placeholder
Four jobs reports in five days: what JOLTS, ADP, claims and the September payrolls mean for the October Fed decisionThe US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.
Author  Mitrade
Sep 28, Mon
The US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.
placeholder
Nvidia's $150 billion buyback landed — and the AI sector fell anyway. That's the signal worth tradingNvidia closed up 1.68% at $228.86 on 28 September after announcing a $150 billion share repurchase authorisation, the largest single corporate buyback on record, while the rest of the AI complex sold off: AMD -3.6%, Micron -2.6%, Meta -4.8% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -1.61%. The divergence is not noise. Capital is rotating toward cash-flow certainty, not abandoning the AI theme. With Micron reporting after the close on 30 September, here is what the split means.
Author  Irene Q.
Yesterday 06: 31
Nvidia closed up 1.68% at $228.86 on 28 September after announcing a $150 billion share repurchase authorisation, the largest single corporate buyback on record, while the rest of the AI complex sold off: AMD -3.6%, Micron -2.6%, Meta -4.8% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -1.61%. The divergence is not noise. Capital is rotating toward cash-flow certainty, not abandoning the AI theme. With Micron reporting after the close on 30 September, here is what the split means.
placeholder
The 30-year Treasury just hit a 22-year high — and the bond market is not pricing the Fed, it is pricing the deficitThe 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.56% on 28 September, the highest since June 2004, while the 10-year reached 5.24% and the 20-year 5.60%. The curve has steepened roughly 30bp in eight sessions even as October hike odds sit at 70.3%. That gap is the story: the long end is repricing fiscal and inflation risk, not policy. With PCE on Wednesday and payrolls on Friday, here is what the long end is really saying.
Author  Irene Q.
Yesterday 07: 08
The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.56% on 28 September, the highest since June 2004, while the 10-year reached 5.24% and the 20-year 5.60%. The curve has steepened roughly 30bp in eight sessions even as October hike odds sit at 70.3%. That gap is the story: the long end is repricing fiscal and inflation risk, not policy. With PCE on Wednesday and payrolls on Friday, here is what the long end is really saying.
placeholder
【Daily Brief】30-year Treasury tops 5.59%, S&P 500 slips to 7,670 and gold holds $4,180 — PCE lands tonightThe 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.59%, its highest since June 2002, and the Dow fell 131.59 points to 51,349.92. US consumer confidence dropped to 81.9, a 12-year low, and JOLTS job openings fell to 7.1 million. August PCE and Q3 GDP both land at 8:30am ET tonight.
Author  Suzie
6 hours ago
The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.59%, its highest since June 2002, and the Dow fell 131.59 points to 51,349.92. US consumer confidence dropped to 81.9, a 12-year low, and JOLTS job openings fell to 7.1 million. August PCE and Q3 GDP both land at 8:30am ET tonight.
Related Instrument
goTop
quote