AUD/USD extends recovery as Greenback falters with Aussie Retail Sales in the barrel

Source Fxstreet
  1. AUD/USD pushes for a second day of recovery after near-term rebound.
  2. Australian Retail Sales on the offer early Tuesday.
  3. US long weekend holiday leaves Monday volumes thin.

AUD/USD found some room on the high side on Monday after US markets dark for the Memorial Day holiday left the Greenback on the low side, propping up the Aussie and extending Friday’s recovery into a second day. AUD traders will be looking ahead to Tuesday’s Australian Retail Sales in April, while US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data looms ahead later in the week.

Australian MoM Retail Sales in April are expected to recover to 0.2% after the previous month’s 0.4% decline. Looking further ahead to Wednesday, Australian Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in April is expected to grow at 3.4% YoY compared to the previous month’s annualized 3.5%.

Talking points from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are expected to resume dominating headlines this week after US markets return to action after a long weekend holiday. A slew of Fed policymakers are expected to make appearances throughout the week.

Friday will cap off the economic calendar with a fresh print of US PCE Price Index inflation. Investors hope Core PCE Price Index inflation in April will hold steady at 0.3%. If the number comes out higher, inflation remains a key problem for the US and could shatter risk appetite, while a lower-than-expected print will send investor sentiment soaring.

AUD/USD technical outlook

Despite getting knocked back below 0.6700 last week, the Aussie remains on the high side of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6575. The pair has been holding on the bullish side since recovering from a swing low into 0.6360 in April, but still remains down from 2024’s opening bids above 0.6800.

AUD/USD hourly chart

AUD/USD daily chart

AUD/USD

Overview
Today last price 0.6656
Today Daily Change 0.0027
Today Daily Change % 0.41
Today daily open 0.6629
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 0.6612
Daily SMA50 0.6555
Daily SMA100 0.6562
Daily SMA200 0.6531
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 0.6636
Previous Daily Low 0.6592
Previous Weekly High 0.6709
Previous Weekly Low 0.6592
Previous Monthly High 0.6644
Previous Monthly Low 0.6362
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.662
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.6609
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6602
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6575
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6557
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6646
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6663
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.669

 

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changedRate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 23, Wed
Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
placeholder
Four jobs reports in five days: what JOLTS, ADP, claims and the September payrolls mean for the October Fed decisionThe US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.
Author  Mitrade
Sep 28, Mon
The US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.
placeholder
Nvidia's $150 billion buyback landed — and the AI sector fell anyway. That's the signal worth tradingNvidia closed up 1.68% at $228.86 on 28 September after announcing a $150 billion share repurchase authorisation, the largest single corporate buyback on record, while the rest of the AI complex sold off: AMD -3.6%, Micron -2.6%, Meta -4.8% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -1.61%. The divergence is not noise. Capital is rotating toward cash-flow certainty, not abandoning the AI theme. With Micron reporting after the close on 30 September, here is what the split means.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 29, Tue
Nvidia closed up 1.68% at $228.86 on 28 September after announcing a $150 billion share repurchase authorisation, the largest single corporate buyback on record, while the rest of the AI complex sold off: AMD -3.6%, Micron -2.6%, Meta -4.8% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -1.61%. The divergence is not noise. Capital is rotating toward cash-flow certainty, not abandoning the AI theme. With Micron reporting after the close on 30 September, here is what the split means.
placeholder
【Daily Brief】30-year Treasury tops 5.59%, S&P 500 slips to 7,670 and gold holds $4,180 — PCE lands tonightThe 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.59%, its highest since June 2002, and the Dow fell 131.59 points to 51,349.92. US consumer confidence dropped to 81.9, a 12-year low, and JOLTS job openings fell to 7.1 million. August PCE and Q3 GDP both land at 8:30am ET tonight.
Author  Suzie
Sep 30, Wed
The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.59%, its highest since June 2002, and the Dow fell 131.59 points to 51,349.92. US consumer confidence dropped to 81.9, a 12-year low, and JOLTS job openings fell to 7.1 million. August PCE and Q3 GDP both land at 8:30am ET tonight.
placeholder
Gold falls to near $4,150 as higher Treasury yields, oil prices outweigh softer PCE inflationGold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $4,150 during the early Asian session on Thursday, pressured by elevated US Treasury bond yields. Traders await the US September employment data for fresh impetus, which will be released later on Friday. 
Author  FXStreet
8 hours ago
Gold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $4,150 during the early Asian session on Thursday, pressured by elevated US Treasury bond yields. Traders await the US September employment data for fresh impetus, which will be released later on Friday. 
Related Instrument
goTop
quote