AUD/USD on the backfoot, slides below 0.6700
Source Fxstreet
- Australian Dollar drops 0.37% against the US Dollar, trading at 0.6668.
- US Treasury yields rise, overshadowing upbeat market sentiment and pressuring AUD.
- Focus shifts to RBA meeting minutes and upcoming Fed speakers and minutes release.
The Australian Dollar registered losses of 0.37% against the US Dollar on Monday, amid rising US Treasury yields that underpinned the Greenback. An upbeat market sentiment could not boost the high-beta Aussie Dollar, which tumbled below the 0.6700 figure. As the Tuesday Asian session begins, the AUD/USD trades at 0.6668, virtually unchanged.
AUD/USD dips below 0.6700 as high US Treasury yields bolster the Greenback
Data-wise, the US economy was empty, though several Fed officials crossed the wires. Following April's data, vice-Chair Philip Jefferson stated that it is too early to tell if the inflation slowdown will last. Michael Barr, the Vice-Chair of Supervision, said that restrictive policy needs more time to do its work, while Atlanta’s Fed President Raphael Bostic stated he expects rates to remain steady.
In the meantime, the Australian docket would feature the release of the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy meeting. ANZ analysts wrote, “We suspect the decision to keep rates on hold was not a close one, given the tone of the post-meeting statement.”
On the US front, Tuesday’s economic docket will feature additional Fed speakers ahead of the release of the last meeting minutes on Wednesday.
AUD/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook
The AUD/USD is neutral to upward bias, but the dip below the March 8 high of 0.6667 could pave the way for a deeper pullback. The next support would be the 0.6600 mark, followed by the 100-day moving average (DMA) at 0.6564 and the 50-DMA at 0.6552. Once surpassed, the next stop would be the 200-DMA at 0.6525.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
After a turbulent 2025, what lies ahead for commodities, forex, and cryptocurrency markets in 2026?
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