USD/SEK declines as markets digest US Retail Sales and CPI figures
Source Fxstreet
- US CPI and Retail Sales came in lower than expected.
- The odds of a cut from the Fed in July slightly increase, and September continues being the best-case scenario.
- Fed officials might change their tone as economic figures showed softness.
On Wednesday, the USD/SEK saw sharp losses as the potential for sooner interest rate cuts by the Fed, in light of the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) disinflation and lackluster Retail Sales, may exert weight on the USD.
On the data front, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US witnessed a marginal decrease in inflation, with the headline CPI moving down from 3.5% in March to 3.4% in April. Core CPI also observed a fall, retreating from 3.8% to 3.6%, aligning with market expectations. In addition, U.S. Retail sales in April remained stagnant, a dip from the anticipated 0.4% growth.
The cooling economic indicators imply that the Federal Reserve might contemplate a sooner start of the easing cycle which would invariably exert pressure on the USD. The CME FedWatch Tool highlights that investors have already priced in that there will be no changes in interest rates in June, but continue seeing with good eyes a cut in September. Those odds slightly increase for the July meeting but remain low.
USD/SEK technical analysis
On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the USD/SEK pair resides in negative territory. The latest reading, marking a downward trend, suggests that sellers are dominating. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is producing rising red bars, thus demonstrating negative momentum.
That being said, strong support was noted at the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) with buyers defending the level at 10.66. This defense acts as a crucial bulwark against any potential downward trend reversals.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Bitcoin briefly loses 2025 gains as crypto plunges over the weekend.Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
Gold price (XAU/USD) extends the decline to around $4,030 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal edges lower as traders dialed back expectations of a US interest rate cut next month.
