Mexican Peso stabilizes after dropping two days in a row

Source Fxstreet
May 15, 2024 08:04
  • The Mexican Peso trades steady after weakening for two days in a row. 
  • Commentary from the Governor of the Banxico and robust economic data for its key peers weigh on the Peso.
  • Traders now await US CPI data as USD/MXN reaches a key technical resistance level.  

The Mexican Peso (MXN) trades little changed during the European session on Wednesday as markets brace for the release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April, the main economic highlight of the day, and market sentiment stabilizes. 

The Peso has weakened for two days running in most of its pairs, on the back of comments from the Governor of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), Victoria Rodríguez Ceja, and strong economic data from rivals. 

At the time of writing USD/MXN is meeting significant technical resistance at 16.85, EUR/MXN is trading at 18.27 and GBP/MXN at 21.24. 

Mexican Peso treads water ahead of US CPI data

The Mexican Peso snakes along on Wednesday ahead of US Consumer Price index data with its potential to shift the outlook for US interest rates and the US Dollar (USD). 

Analysts expect the headline CPI to show a 0.4% monthly increase in April and for core to rise 0.3%. This would translate into 3.4% and 3.6% rises respectively year-over-year, decelerating from the previous month’s readings.

A higher-than-expected result might further delay the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) plans to cut interest rates, lending a backwind to the US Dollar (USD) and lifting USD/MXN. The opposite would be the case for a lower-than-expected result.

In Europe, meanwhile, the preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the first quarter is about to be released and could impact EUR/MXN if it deviates substantially from economists’ expectations, which are for 0.3% GDP growth in Q1 on a quarterly basis, and 0.4% YoY. 

Mexican Peso weakens for two days in a row

The Mexican Peso finished Tuesday in the red, dropping for the second day in a row in its most heavily traded pairs.

The decline was partially due to commentary from the Governor of the Bank of Mexico Victoria Rodríguez Ceja on Monday, who hinted Banxico might consider cutting interest rates in June. The expectation of lower interest rates is negative for a currency as it reduces foreign capital inflows.  

Ceja commented, “We could evaluate downward adjustments” to the main reference rate at the Banxico June 27 policy meeting. She went on to note that while headline inflation had continued to rise, underlying prices had not, but much depended on the evolution of the inflationary outlook, reported Christian Borjan Valencia, Editor at FXstreet. 

Banxico cut its policy rate from 11.25% to 11.00% at the March meeting, the first rate cut since 2021. However, it chose to keep the policy rate unchanged at the May meeting due to persistent inflationary forces. 

Technical Analysis: USD/MXN pull back hits key resistance level 

USD/MXN – the value of one US Dollar in Mexican Pesos –  has risen to a key resistance level at roughly 16.86, which corresponds with the base of the range it traded in during the second half of April and the first half of May. 

USD/MXN had previously broken out of the range and declined sharply to a low of 16.72 on Friday May 10, however, it stalled and reversed course. Since then, it has been making a steady recovery.

USD/MXN 4-hour Chart 

The recovery move has now met resistance from the previous range floor. The move could be what technical analysts call a “throwback” – a temporary rebound that happens after breakouts whereby the price returns to the original breakout level to “air kiss” it goodbye one final time before continuing lower. 

If this is the case, the pair will probably soon resume its downtrend and eventually surpass the May 10 lows before reaching the conservative target for the breakout, the 0.681 Fibonacci ratio of the height of the range extrapolated lower, at 16.54.  Further bearishness could even reach 16.34, the full height of the range extrapolated lower. 

A break below the May 10 lows at 16.72 would provide extra confirmation of a continuation south. 

Given the medium and long-term trends are bearish, the odds further favor more downside for the pair in line with those trends. 

A decisive break back inside the range, however, would reverse the downtrending bias in the short-term and suggest the pair is moving higher. It would also negate the price targets for the breakout.

A decisive break would be one accompanied by a longer-than-average green candlestick that closed near its high or three green candlesticks in a row.

Economic Indicator

Consumer Price Index (MoM)

Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The MoM figure compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the previous month.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Read more.

Next release: Wed May 15, 2024 12:30

Frequency: Monthly

Consensus: 0.4%

Previous: 0.4%

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

The US Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.


Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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