Canadian Dollar advances as oil prices gain on stalled US–Iran peace talks
- USD/CAD falls as the Canadian Dollar gains support from higher oil prices.
- WTI rises after Trump canceled Pakistan talks delegation, heightening supply concerns.
- Israel-Hezbollah clashes intensify despite a US-brokered ceasefire extension.
USD/CAD remains subdued for the second successive day, trading around 1.3660 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair loses ground as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) receives support from higher oil prices, given Canada’s status as the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price receives support after registering 2.4% losses in the previous day, trading around $94.00 per barrel at the time of writing. Crude oil prices advance on rising supply concerns amid stalled US–Iran peace talks. US President Donald Trump called off that delegation to Pakistan to potentially discuss directly with Iran.
President Trump on Saturday told Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff to skip the trip to Pakistan, which is mediating talks, saying that Iran “offered a lot, but not enough. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that his nation won’t enter “imposed negotiations under threats or blockade.”
Meanwhile, traffic through the strategic waterway remains largely restricted due to Iran’s controls and the US naval blockade, heightening fears of prolonged disruptions and providing further support to crude oil prices.
The USD/CAD pair is also subdued as the US Dollar (USD) extends its losses for the second successive day despite increased safe-haven demand as the ceasefire comes under strain, with Israel and Hezbollah escalating attacks despite a US-brokered extension meant to halt fighting for three weeks.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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