EUR/USD tumbles out of recent range, tests below 1.0770 as markets flee into safe havens
Source Fxstreet
- Euro slips to near-term lows as risk-off markets bid Greenback.
- European markets will be largely dark on Wednesday.
- Midweek Fed rate call on the cards.
EUR/USD slid below the 1.0670 level on Tuesday after an unexpected uptick in US wages growth reignited fears of sticky inflation, chopping down rate cut expectations and sending investors into safe haven bids.
With European markets broadly shuttered on Wednesday for Labour Day, investors will be left to focus on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest rate call. Markets are broadly expecting the Fed to hold rates steady for the time being, but market participants will be actively looking for firmer policy guidance from the US central bank as inflation fears and a steep downturn in US economic growth figures plague market sentiment.
US housing prices and wage costs for businesses both showed acceleration on Tuesday, while consumer and business sentiment surveys turn sharply lower at the same time. Investors are grappling with the prospect of a stagnant economy with too-high inflation that will hobble the Fed’s ability to cut rates at the higher pace that investors have been hoping for since the start of 2024.
According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets now only see a single rate quarter-point rate cut from the Fed for the year, with a 54% chance of no rate cut in September and only a 57% chance of a 25-basis-point rate trim at the Fed’s November policy meeting.
EUR/USD technical outlook
EUR/USD’s decline on Tuesday firmly knocked the pair below the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0800 as the pair tests into fresh weekly lows and in striking distance of a supply zone near 1.0660.
The pair is approaching April’s low bids near the 1.0600 handle, and EUR/USD is down around 2% from the last swing high at 1.0885.
EUR/USD hourly chart
EUR/USD daily chart
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Bitcoin briefly loses 2025 gains as crypto plunges over the weekend.Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
Gold price (XAU/USD) extends the decline to around $4,030 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal edges lower as traders dialed back expectations of a US interest rate cut next month.
