GBP/USD Price Analysis: Extends recovery above 1.2500, but bears loom around 200-DMA
Source Fxstreet
- GBP/USD gains over 0.40%, rebounding from daily lows after US Q1 economic growth underperforms expectations.
- Mixed signals from the US economy support Sterling's rise.
- Technical outlook: Key resistance at 1.2559 with potential to target April 9 high at 1.2709 if upward momentum continues.
The Pound Sterling resumed its advance against the US Dollar, climbing more than 0.40% and trading at 1.2518. During the day, the GBP/USD bounced off daily lows of 1.2450 following the release of mixed economic data from the United States. The US economy in Q1 2024 grew below estimates, which would warrant easing monetary policy. But prices edging up spurred investors' reaction to priced-out rate cuts in 2024.
GBP/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook
The GBP/USD is aiming up sharply, though it remains bearishly biased. Although the major remains far from the latest cycle high, if buyers regain some key resistance levels, that would ultimately expose the April 9 high at 1.2709, the latest cycle high.
Therefore, the GBP/USD first resistance would be the 200-day moving average (DMA) at 1.2559. A breach of the latter will expose the 1.2600 figure, followed by the 50 and 100-DMAs, each a 1.2624 and 1.2647. Once those levels are surpassed, the April 9 high would be up next.
On the other hand, if GBP/USD slumps below 1.2500, that would keep the downtrend intact and pave the way to re-test the year-to-date (YTD) low of 1.2299.
GBP/USD Price Action – Daily Chart
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Recommended Articles
Gold ends three-week slide at the $4,400 line — eight straight days of ETF inflows vs a 5% 10-year and a 100 dollarSpot gold closed Friday at $4,378.39, up 0.84% on the day and about 0.8% for the week — its first weekly gain in four weeks — with the intraday high of $4,399.67 leaving it 33 cents shy of the $4,400 line. Gold ETFs have now logged eight straight sessions of inflows, but with the 10-year back above 5% and the dollar index near 100, here is what decides whether this is a reversal or a bounce.
Spot gold closed Friday at $4,378.39, up 0.84% on the day and about 0.8% for the week — its first weekly gain in four weeks — with the intraday high of $4,399.67 leaving it 33 cents shy of the $4,400 line. Gold ETFs have now logged eight straight sessions of inflows, but with the 10-year back above 5% and the dollar index near 100, here is what decides whether this is a reversal or a bounce.
October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changedRate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Four jobs reports in five days: what JOLTS, ADP, claims and the September payrolls mean for the October Fed decisionThe US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.
The US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.60% from 4.35% on Tuesday, after keeping rates unchanged at its previous two meetings
Nvidia's $150 billion buyback landed — and the AI sector fell anyway. That's the signal worth tradingNvidia closed up 1.68% at $228.86 on 28 September after announcing a $150 billion share repurchase authorisation, the largest single corporate buyback on record, while the rest of the AI complex sold off: AMD -3.6%, Micron -2.6%, Meta -4.8% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -1.61%. The divergence is not noise. Capital is rotating toward cash-flow certainty, not abandoning the AI theme. With Micron reporting after the close on 30 September, here is what the split means.
Nvidia closed up 1.68% at $228.86 on 28 September after announcing a $150 billion share repurchase authorisation, the largest single corporate buyback on record, while the rest of the AI complex sold off: AMD -3.6%, Micron -2.6%, Meta -4.8% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -1.61%. The divergence is not noise. Capital is rotating toward cash-flow certainty, not abandoning the AI theme. With Micron reporting after the close on 30 September, here is what the split means.
Related Instrument
