JPY stuck in tight consolidation as volatility erodes – Scotiabank

The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains incredibly quiet as it extends the tight consolidation that we’ve observed over the past couple of weeks, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

Yen vols slide toward multi-year lows

"JPY vols are softening across a range of time horizons and the one month measure is threatening a push through the December low (7.44%) to levels last seen in March 2024. Domestic releases have been soft, with notable weakness in the labor cash earnings data for November."

"JGB yields have taken note and are down 4-6bpts across the curve. The JPY appears vulnerable to near-term weakness if the BoJ acknowledges the softer data and pushes back on expectations for continued tightening."

"We are neutral USD/JPY awaiting a break of the ~154.50/158 range from mid-November."