USD/CHF weakens amid Fed rate cut expectations, mixed Swiss CPI

• The US Dollar weakens ahead of the ADP and ISM Services data, while expectations for Fed rate cuts increase.
• Swiss consumer prices came mixed in November, reinforcing expectations that the SNB will keep rates unchanged.
• USD/CHF trades around 0.8010, holding above the 0.8000 threshold despite slight daily losses.

USD/CHF stabilizes above 0.8000 on Wednesday, trading near 0.8010 at the time of writing, down 0.25% on the day. The pair continues to follow the broader trend of a weakening US Dollar (USD), as the US Dollar Index (DXY) falls toward 99.10, down 0.15% on the day, amid political uncertainty and stronger expectations of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Market sentiment is also influenced by recent comments from US President Donald Trump, who hinted that White House Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett could be announced as the successor to Jerome Powell in early 2026. The prospect of a Hassett-led Fed, seen as supportive of lower interest rates, weighs on monetary policy expectations and pressures the US Dollar.

Market attention turns to US data releases scheduled for later in the day. The ADP Employment Change report for November is expected to show only 5,000 new jobs, sharply lower than October’s 42,000. The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is forecasted to ease to 52.1 in November from 52.4 in October.

These figures will be closely analyzed, given the postponement of the official Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report due to the government shutdown, now scheduled for December 16. Several Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members have recently voiced concerns about weakening labor demand and signaled openness to further monetary support. Markets now price an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut next week, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

On the Swiss side, inflation came mixed in November. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.2% MoM, in line with expectations, but rebounded after a 0.3% decrease in the previous month, while the annual rate dropped to 0% from 0.1%, below the 0.1% forecast. 

These mixed readings in inflation strengthen expectations that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will keep its policy rate unchanged on December. Recent comments from Chair Martin Schlegel indicated that the threshold for returning to negative rates remains “high”, although the SNB stands ready to cut if needed. Board Member Petra Tschudin also noted that inflation is expected to rise slightly over the coming quarters.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

In the 4-hour chart, USD/CHF trades at 0.8010, little changed on a daily basis and below the day opening price by 10 pips. The 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) extends lower, with price holding beneath it near 0.8022, keeping sellers in control. The SMA caps intraday upticks as dynamic resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) slips to 35.6, reflecting bearish momentum without entering oversold territory. The descending trend line from 0.8102 limits the upside, with resistance seen around 0.8039.

Immediate resistance aligns at 0.8100, followed by 0.8124, while support is seen at 0.7996. A move above 0.8039 would relieve pressure and pave the way toward the first resistance, whereas a break under the support would extend the slide. The intraday bias stays bearish unless price recovers above the 100-period SMA.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)