USD/CHF Price Forecast: 20-day EMA continues to act as key barrier for US Dollar bulls

• USD/CHF trades cautiously around 0.7925 ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech.
• The Fed lowered interest rates last week amid growing US labor market concerns.
• Investors expect the SNB to hold interest rates steady at 0% on Thursday.

The USD/CHF pair trades subduedly around 0.7925 during the late European trading session on Tuesday. The Swiss Franc pair trades with caution as the US Dollar (USD) demonstrates sluggishness ahead of the speech from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell at 16:35 GMT.

Investors will pay close attention to Fed Powell’s speech to get fresh more cues on the monetary policy outlook. Market participants would like to know about whether the Fed will continue reducing interest rates even as inflationary pressures remain well above the central bank’s target of 2%.

Last week, the Fed reduced interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.00%-4.25% and signaled more amid slowing United States (US) labor market.

In Tuesday’s session, investors will also focus on the preliminary US S&P Global PMI data for September.

This week, the major trigger for the Swiss Franc (CHF) will be the Swiss National Bank’s interest rate decision on Thursday. The SNB is expected to hold interest rates steady at zero level.

USD/CHF continues to face selling pressure near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 0.7964.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) wobbles inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting a sharp volatility contraction.

The pair could witness a fresh downside move towards 0.7800, if it breaks below the September 17 low of 0.7829.

In an alternate scenario, a recovery move by the pair above the August 1 high of 0.8170 will open the room for more upside towards the June 19 high of 0.8215, followed by the June 6 high of 0.8248.

USD/CHF daily chart