USD/JPY seen easing to 140.00 in H2 – Scotiabank
Source Fxstreet
The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to languish. Economists at Scotiabank analyze USD/JPY outlook.
A rapid move higher in the JPY is possible
We forecast USD/JPY easing to 140.00 in H2. This is predicated primarily on the USD responding negatively to easier Fed monetary policy.
The onerous carry makes long JPY positions prohibitive unless market participants feel the JPY is poised to rally strongly and in quick order.
A rapid move higher in the JPY is possible – but perhaps only once traders are convinced that a Fed policy pivot is imminent.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Recommended Articles
Gold closed at $3,946, up 1.84% from a one-year low of $3,870.25, as Brent's 7.6% slide cut December hike odds to 77%. ETF holdings are still shrinking — a short-covering bounce, not new money.
Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for November 5, 2026. Read on for the details.
Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for November 6, 2026. Read on for the details.
Gold's $250 week runs into the last payrolls before DecemberSpot gold traded at $4,080.79 after a roughly 6% weekly rally from the Oct 30 low of $3,869.85, touching $4,146.63 on Nov 5. Three bids are stacked into the move: real-rate relief, record official-sector buying, and a geopolitical premium. Tonight's October payrolls (+65K consensus, 4.2% unemployment) decide which bid survives, with $4,000 and $4,200 as the two lines.
Spot gold traded at $4,080.79 after a roughly 6% weekly rally from the Oct 30 low of $3,869.85, touching $4,146.63 on Nov 5. Three bids are stacked into the move: real-rate relief, record official-sector buying, and a geopolitical premium. Tonight's October payrolls (+65K consensus, 4.2% unemployment) decide which bid survives, with $4,000 and $4,200 as the two lines.
Micron's $4.5 billion Taiwan fab won't make a chip until 2028 — the market sold it as a 2026 problemMicron fell 17.46% to $656.39 after Bloomberg reported construction at its $4.5 billion Taoyuan Fab 11E had all but halted over a labor dispute. The plant was not due online until 2028, so no 2026 output is lost. With FY27 EPS consensus near $160 and 2027 HBM sold out, the selloff is a peak-cycle multiple reset, not a demand collapse — and $650 is the line that separates the two.
Micron fell 17.46% to $656.39 after Bloomberg reported construction at its $4.5 billion Taoyuan Fab 11E had all but halted over a labor dispute. The plant was not due online until 2028, so no 2026 output is lost. With FY27 EPS consensus near $160 and 2027 HBM sold out, the selloff is a peak-cycle multiple reset, not a demand collapse — and $650 is the line that separates the two.
Related Instrument
