Trump Tariffs Spark Global Central Bank Rate Cuts – Could the ECB Cut Rates 10 Times in Two Years?

Source Tradingkey

TradingKey - Under the threat of U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, global central banks have been forced to reconsider their monetary policy stances. 

Following interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Reserve Bank of India, the European Central Bank (ECB) also cut rates for the seventh time in its easing cycle, citing concerns that U.S. trade policies could weigh on economic growth. Meanwhile, both China and the U.S. are contemplating further easing measures.

On Thursday, April 17, the ECB announced a 25-basis-point reduction in its deposit facility rate to 2.25%, in line with expectations. The refinancing rate and marginal lending rate were lowered to 2.4% and 2.65%, respectively. This marked the ECB’s seventh rate cut since June 2024 and its seventh consecutive cut over eight meetings.

ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the significant escalation of global trade tensions and associated uncertainties could dampen exports, thereby slowing growth in the eurozone and weighing on investment and consumption.

In addition to concerns about growth, the ECB's decision to cut rates was also driven by the eurozone's inflation trajectory, which is gradually moving closer to the central bank's 2% target.

Some analysts noted that while a recession may not be the baseline forecast, if such a scenario materializes, the ECB would need to respond with more forceful measures.

The ECB is not alone in adopting precautionary rate cuts amid tariff threats. Both the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Reserve Bank of India cited tariff risks when they cut rates earlier in April.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand noted that the full impact of higher tariffs would take time to ripple through the global economy. However, the effects of rising prices due to tariffs, coupled with weaker global demand caused by heightened uncertainty, could manifest more quickly.

Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China recently signaled plans to cut interest rates and reserve requirements at any time. U.S. President Trump, facing mounting economic pressures, launched three attacks on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on the same day, calling for immediate rate cuts and even threatening to remove Powell from his position prematurely.

Unlike most central banks, Japan is in a tightening cycle. However, to mitigate the impact of tariffs, Japanese authorities are considering direct cash subsidies to households to cushion the effects of faster-rising prices.

Market participants have increased bets on further ECB rate cuts, with expectations that there could be two or three more cuts this year. In contrast, just last month, traders were pricing in the possibility of the ECB tightening its easing cycle and raising rates in 2026, as Germany embarks on historic fiscal reforms that could boost inflation and stimulate the economy.

Under the most optimistic rate-cutting scenario, the ECB could implement up to 10 rate cuts cumulatively in 2024 and 2025. Analysts at Pictet Wealth Management suggested that it is now conceivable for the ECB to cut rates by 100 basis points this year.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Author  FXStreet
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Author  Mitrade
Dec 15, Mon
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Macro Analysts: Hawkish Japan Could Push Bitcoin Below $70KAnalysts predict Bitcoin may face further declines towards the $70,000 mark if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates as expected.
Author  Mitrade
Dec 15, Mon
Analysts predict Bitcoin may face further declines towards the $70,000 mark if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates as expected.
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Bitcoin Slides 5% as Sellers Lean In — Can BTC Reclaim $88,000?Bitcoin has dropped back below $88,000 after rolling over from $90,500, with price still trading under the 100-hour Simple Moving Average. The sell-off found a floor at $85,151, and BTC is now consolidating near that base, but rebounds are facing pressure from a bearish trend line around $89,000. Bulls need to retake $88,000–$89,000 to ease downside risk; failure to do so keeps $85,500–$85,000 and then $83,500 in play, with $80,000 as the deeper “line in the sand.” Bitcoin (BTC) is back in damage-control mode after a sharp pullback wiped out recent gains. The price failed to reclaim the $90,000–$90,500 band, rolled over, and slid through $88,500 before briefly dipping under $87,000. Buyers did show up around $85,000, but the rebound so far looks more like stabilization than a clear trend reversal. Bitcoin dips hard, finds a bid near $85,000(h3) BTC’s latest move lower began when it couldn’t build follow-through above $90,000 and $90,500. Once that upside stalled, sellers took control and pushed price down through $88,500. The slide accelerated enough to spike below $87,000, but the market didn’t free-fall. Bulls defended the $85,000 zone, printing a low at $85,151. Since then, Bitcoin has been consolidating below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the $93,560 swing high to the $85,151 low — a clue that the bounce is still shallow and that sellers haven’t fully backed off yet. Structurally, BTC is still on the back foot: It’s trading below $88,000, and It remains below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average, keeping short-term trend pressure pointed downward. Resistance is layered, and $89,000 is the problem area(h3) If bulls try to turn this into a recovery, they’ll have to climb through multiple ceilings in quick succession. First, BTC faces resistance around $87,150, followed by a more meaningful barrier near $87,500. From there, the market’s attention snaps back to $88,000 — the level BTC just lost and now needs to reclaim. A close back above $88,000 would improve the tone, but it doesn’t solve the bigger issue: there’s a bearish trend line on the hourly BTC/USD chart (Kraken feed) with resistance near $89,000, which also lines up with the next technical hurdle. If BTC can push through $89,000 and hold, the rebound could extend toward $90,000, with follow-through targets at $91,000 and $91,500. But until price clears that $88,000–$89,000 zone, rallies are at risk of being sold rather than chased. If BTC fails to reclaim resistance, the downside path is clear(h3) The near-term bear case is simple: if Bitcoin can’t climb back above the $87,000 area and keep traction, sellers may attempt another leg lower. Support levels line up like this: Immediate support: $85,500 First major support: $85,000 Next support: $83,500 Then $82,500 in the near term Below that, the major “don’t break this” level is still $80,000. If BTC slips under $80,000, the risk of acceleration to the downside increases significantly — not because it’s magic, but because it’s the kind of psychological and structural level that tends to trigger forced de-risking. Indicators: momentum still leans bearish(h3) The intraday indicators aren’t offering much comfort yet: Hourly MACD is losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI remains below 50, suggesting sellers still have the upper hand on short timeframes. So while the $85,000 defense held for now, the market hasn’t flipped bullish — it’s just stopped bleeding.
Author  Mitrade
23 hours ago
Bitcoin has dropped back below $88,000 after rolling over from $90,500, with price still trading under the 100-hour Simple Moving Average. The sell-off found a floor at $85,151, and BTC is now consolidating near that base, but rebounds are facing pressure from a bearish trend line around $89,000. Bulls need to retake $88,000–$89,000 to ease downside risk; failure to do so keeps $85,500–$85,000 and then $83,500 in play, with $80,000 as the deeper “line in the sand.” Bitcoin (BTC) is back in damage-control mode after a sharp pullback wiped out recent gains. The price failed to reclaim the $90,000–$90,500 band, rolled over, and slid through $88,500 before briefly dipping under $87,000. Buyers did show up around $85,000, but the rebound so far looks more like stabilization than a clear trend reversal. Bitcoin dips hard, finds a bid near $85,000(h3) BTC’s latest move lower began when it couldn’t build follow-through above $90,000 and $90,500. Once that upside stalled, sellers took control and pushed price down through $88,500. The slide accelerated enough to spike below $87,000, but the market didn’t free-fall. Bulls defended the $85,000 zone, printing a low at $85,151. Since then, Bitcoin has been consolidating below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the $93,560 swing high to the $85,151 low — a clue that the bounce is still shallow and that sellers haven’t fully backed off yet. Structurally, BTC is still on the back foot: It’s trading below $88,000, and It remains below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average, keeping short-term trend pressure pointed downward. Resistance is layered, and $89,000 is the problem area(h3) If bulls try to turn this into a recovery, they’ll have to climb through multiple ceilings in quick succession. First, BTC faces resistance around $87,150, followed by a more meaningful barrier near $87,500. From there, the market’s attention snaps back to $88,000 — the level BTC just lost and now needs to reclaim. A close back above $88,000 would improve the tone, but it doesn’t solve the bigger issue: there’s a bearish trend line on the hourly BTC/USD chart (Kraken feed) with resistance near $89,000, which also lines up with the next technical hurdle. If BTC can push through $89,000 and hold, the rebound could extend toward $90,000, with follow-through targets at $91,000 and $91,500. But until price clears that $88,000–$89,000 zone, rallies are at risk of being sold rather than chased. If BTC fails to reclaim resistance, the downside path is clear(h3) The near-term bear case is simple: if Bitcoin can’t climb back above the $87,000 area and keep traction, sellers may attempt another leg lower. Support levels line up like this: Immediate support: $85,500 First major support: $85,000 Next support: $83,500 Then $82,500 in the near term Below that, the major “don’t break this” level is still $80,000. If BTC slips under $80,000, the risk of acceleration to the downside increases significantly — not because it’s magic, but because it’s the kind of psychological and structural level that tends to trigger forced de-risking. Indicators: momentum still leans bearish(h3) The intraday indicators aren’t offering much comfort yet: Hourly MACD is losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI remains below 50, suggesting sellers still have the upper hand on short timeframes. So while the $85,000 defense held for now, the market hasn’t flipped bullish — it’s just stopped bleeding.
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Senate Delays Crypto Market Structure Hearings to Early 2026The Senate Banking Committee has postponed cryptocurrency market structure hearings until 2026, citing ongoing bipartisan negotiations.
Author  Mitrade
20 hours ago
The Senate Banking Committee has postponed cryptocurrency market structure hearings until 2026, citing ongoing bipartisan negotiations.
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