Breaking down the stunning tech outperformance in last 20 years

Investing.com -- Over the past two decades, the technology sector has emerged as a major driver of market returns, outperforming broader market indices. 

This performance has been influenced by a select group of dominant firms often referred to as the "Magnificent 7" (Mag 7). 

However, analysts at Bernstein in a note dated Monday said that the tech sector has continued to excel even when these top performers are excluded. 

“Tech has outperformed the market by 500 bps per year over the last 20 years, and by a stunning 800 basis per year over the last 10 years,” the analysts said. 

This performance is largely attributed to robust revenue growth, which has consistently surpassed the broader market by 300-500 bps.

Despite the substantial impact of the Mag 7, which collectively represent around 50% of the sector's revenues and 65% of its market capitalization within the top 1500 tech stocks, the technology sector has continued to outperform even when these giants are excluded. 

When the Mag 7 is removed from the analysis, the tech sector still exhibits strong performance. Over the past 20 years, tech excluding the Mag 7 outperformed the broader market by 100 bps annually. 

This trend is even more pronounced over the last decade, where the sector exceeded the broader market by 300 bps. 

In the past five years, tech ex-Mag 7 has also managed to outperform the broader market, demonstrating that substantial growth is not confined to the sector's largest players.

In terms of sector-specific performance, semiconductors have emerged as the strongest performer. 

“Semis have been the best performing sector, even if we exclude the Mag 7 (and Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA)), with 10 and 20 years average returns of 27% and 17% (and 18% and 13% excluding the Mag 7),” the analysts said.

In contrast, hardware and networking sectors have struggled, particularly when Apple is excluded from the analysis. 

These segments have shown weaker revenue growth and lower returns, leading Bernstein analysts to recommend a cautious approach towards IT hardware stocks, suggesting they be treated as trading opportunities rather than long-term investments.

The global comparison further highlights the dominance of the US technology sector. The MSCI All Cap World Index excluding the US, which includes a market capitalization of $45 trillion and tech composition of $6 trillion, lags behind the US market, which boasts a capitalization of $64 trillion and a tech composition of $23 trillion. 

Over the past 10 and 20 years, the US tech index (excluding the Mag 7) has outperformed the MSCI ex-US tech index, delivering returns of 13% and 10% compared to 12% and 8% respectively. 

Despite similar revenue growth rates between international and US tech sectors ex-Mag 7, the valuation and market dynamics reveal a clear advantage for the US market.

The analysis also underscores the critical importance of stock picking within the technology sector. Historically 49% of tech stocks have outperformed in any given year over the last 25 years. 

This emphasizes the ongoing relevance of specialized analysis and careful stock selection, given the sector's rapid evolution and diverse opportunities.

In light of these insights, Bernstein analysts offer targeted recommendations within the IT hardware sector. 

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Dell Technologies (NYSE:DELL) are flagged with an “outperform” rating, reflecting their strong performance and potential for continued growth. Conversely, HP Inc (NYSE:HPQ) and IBM (NYSE:IBM) are rated market-perform, indicating a more cautious outlook.