Biden dropping re-election bid a question of when, not if- TD Cowen

Investing.com-- President Joe Biden is likely to drop his bid for reelection, TD analysts said in a note, amid growing concerns over his health and whether he will be able to effectively run against Republican nominee Donald Trump. 

“While the decision ultimately rests with Biden, we see him dropping his re-election bid as a question of when, not if,” analysts said. 

TD analysts said that their base case was Vice President Kamala Harris will become the Democratic nominee, but noted that uncertainty over such a scenario was at “record highs.” 

Harris was seen picking from four potential candidates as running mates- Senator Mark Kelly, Governor Josh Shapiro, Governor Roy Cooper or Governor Andy Beshear, TD analysts said.

Concerns over whether Biden will be able to effectively seek a second term surged over the past month after his seemingly disastrous performance in a presidential debate with Trump. 

Critics of the 46th president have argued that his advanced age and tenuous health make him unfit to run for a second term. A slew of Democratic party members and donors were seen calling on Biden to pull out after the debate. 

Reports this week showed that former House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi told House Democrats that she believed Biden could be convinced to step down.

Biden has so far said he still plans to run for a second term. But the president said in a recent interview that he would step aside due to a medical issue- comments which came just a day before he tested positive for COVID-19. 

Uncertainty over Biden’s presidential chances also came as Trump saw a substantial rise in popularity, following a failed assassination attempt last week.

TD said the Republican party had now realigned around Trump, and the Democrats could potentially lose the Senate. 

“Should Trump win in a GOP sweep (House&Senate), we suspect he would read that as a MAGA mandate for his American First policies… we expect (a) potential 2nd Term to be all gas, no brake.” 

Trump is widely expected to push for more protectionist, pro-business policies in a second term.