GBP/USD extends its upside above 1.2700, investors await fresh catalysts
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■GBP/USD holds positive ground around 1.2710 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
■Fed officials remain cautious about the timing of rate cuts, emphasizing the need to hold rates higher for longer.
■The UK CPI inflation is expected to ease to 2.1% YoY in April from 3.2% prior.
The GBP/USD pair extends the rally near 1.2710 on Tuesday during the early Asian session. Investors await fresh catalysts, with different Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers set to speak later in the day. On Wednesday, the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data and FOMC Minutes will be closely watched.
The Greenback trades steady on Tuesday amid the absence of top-tier economic data releases from the US and the UK. The Fed officials remain cautious about the timing of its easing cycle and emphasize the need to hold rates higher for longer to gain confidence that inflation is on course toward the target. The upcoming FOMC minutes on Wednesday will take center stage as they might offer some clues about the future interest rate path.
On Monday, Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr said that the central bank “will need to allow our restrictive policy some further time to continue to do its work.” Meanwhile, Fed policymaker Philip Jefferson, another permanent voting member of the Fed's rate-setting committee, said inflation was still easing, although nowhere near as quickly as he expected. The Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged when they meet again in June. Financial markets see a 76% chance of rate cuts by 25 basis points (bps) in September and two cuts by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The wait-and-see mode of the US Fed is likely to lift the US dollar (USD) and might cap the pair’s upside in the near term.
On the other hand, an interest rate cut from the Bank of England (BoE) at its June meeting has not been ruled out. The BoE governor Andrew Bailey noted that the bank will be led by data such as UK wage growth and consumer price inflation. The UK CPI inflation is expected to ease to 2.1% YoY in April from 3.2% in March, while the core CPI inflation is estimated to drop to 3.6% YoY in April from 4.2% in the previous reading. The softer reading might trigger the expectation of rate cuts and weigh on the Pound Sterling (GBP).
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