USD/CAD extends downside near 1.3750, US Initial Jobless Claims and geopolitical risks eyed

■  USD/CAD trades on a softer note around 1.3755 in Thursday’s early Asian session. 

■  BoC’s governing council saw the risk that consumer spending could be significantly weaker than expected in 2025 and 2026. 

■  Traders will watch the weekly US Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday for some hints about the employment market outlook. 

The USD/CAD pair extends its decline to near 1.3755 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is poised to perform well this week despite the lack of top-tier economic data released earlier this week. On Friday, traders will closely monitor the Canadian employment report for July. 

The Bank of Canada (BoC) minutes from a recent meeting released Wednesday showed that members saw a risk that consumer spending would be much weaker than expected in 2025 and 2026. The minutes observed that labour market pressures had eased and that the economy was evolving largely as expected, although job creation has been slower in the working-age population. 

According to the deliberations, some members were more focused on the downside risks to inflation posed by a weak economy and restrictive monetary policy, while others emphasized the upside risks of wage growth and the possibility of a housing market rebound. 

The Canadian employment data will be published on Friday. The Canadian economy is expected to add 22.5K jobs in July, while the Unemployment Rate is estimated to rise to 6.5% in the same report period from 6.4% in June. 

Meanwhile, the rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and another fall in US weekly crude oil inventories boost crude oil prices and lift the commodity-linked Loonie. It's worth noting that higher oil prices generally support the CAD lower as Canada is the leading exporter of Oil to the United States (US).

On the USD’s front, investors expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to take more aggressive action for the interest rate before it misses the chance. Markets are pricing in a strong likelihood of that half-point rate cut in September. The expectation of deeper rate cuts might cap the upside for the US Dollar in the near term. 

Traders will keep an eye on the weekly US Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday. TD Securities analysts said, “Jobless claims on Thursday is something markets will be looking for confirmation of slowing economic numbers, particularly employment.”