Australian Dollar steadies near 0.6400 as US Dollar weakens post-PMI

• The AUD/USD trades flat around the 0.6400 zone as the US Dollar struggles to hold gains after weak business activity data.

• The US Composite PMI fell to 51.2, services lost steam, and Bessent said US tariffs may drop “mutually,” driving risk appetite.

• Technicals show bullish bias; support lies around 0.6347 while resistance emerges at 0.6395 and above.
  

The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades flat against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, holding close to the 0.6400 area after a volatile session. The pair consolidated within a tight range of 0.6349 to 0.6436, reflecting a pause in directional conviction. This comes after a turbulent 24 hours for the Greenback, as the US Dollar Index (DXY) erased its early pop toward the 100.00 mark and settled near 99.50. Market sentiment was dented by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments suggesting that current tariffs with China are unsustainable and may decline “in a mutual way.” Meanwhile, S&P Global’s preliminary April Composite PMI showed slower business activity growth, with the services sector losing traction.

Daily digest market movers: Markets digest fresh US data

• The DXY failed to sustain gains despite touching the 100.00 level early Wednesday, retreating to the 99.50 region by the end of the session. 

• The pullback came after Treasury Secretary Bessent refrained from offering a timeline for new tariff discussions with China and noted that any talks would happen at levels below Trump and Xi. He added that current tariff revenues would fall short of funding TCJA tax cuts, raising fiscal concerns.

• The S&P Global flash PMI for April indicated a broader loss of momentum in US economic activity. The Composite PMI fell to 51.2 from 53.5, driven by a decline in services to 51.4. Manufacturing slightly improved to 50.7, but overall sentiment weakened. Inflation pressures persisted, complicating the Federal Reserve’s ability to ease policy.

• Risk assets showed mixed responses. US equities slid from highs on tariff uncertainty but later recovered some ground. Meanwhile, Gold dipped below $3,300 and the US 10-year yield remained under pressure. Crude oil prices dropped to four-day lows, while Silver rose to multi-week highs.

• In currencies, EUR/USD and GBP/USD both retreated, weighed down by Greenback strength and soft European data. The yen weakened as USD/JPY broke above the 143.00 level, boosted by US rate expectations.
  

Technical Analysis: AUD/USD holds firm near 0.6400, bulls remain in control

The AUD/USD pair shows a steady performance near the 0.6400 level, with price action hovering around the midpoint of the intraday range (0.6349 to 0.6436). The technical outlook favors further upside.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 56.01, suggesting neutral momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) confirms a bullish signal, aligning with broader trend strength. The Stochastic %K at 89.16 and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at 80.84 remain neutral.

Short-term trend indicators reinforce the bullish case. The 10-day EMA (0.6337), 10-day SMA (0.6347), 20-day SMA (0.6267), and 100-day SMA (0.6285) are all aligned to the upside. The 200-day SMA at 0.6472, however, continues to act as longer-term resistance.