GBP/USD rebounded above 1.3300 on Tuesday amid Greenback weakness.
Markets took US inflation data in stride, investors continue to focus on US trade deal hopes.
UK GDP growth figures loom ahead on Thursday, numbers are expected to come in mixed.
GBP/USD caught a bid on Tuesday, rebounding above the 1.3300 handle and reversing early week losses as global markets tilt and twist around general Greenback flows based on broad-market sentiment. UK labor figures barely moved the needle, and market reaction to US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation was likewise muted. Investors continue to focus on hopes that continued trade deal negotiations between the Trump administration and literally everybody else continues to drive general sentiment, however all trade tariff concessions delivered by team Trump have been strictly temporary in nature.
The UK’s quarterly ILO Unemployment Rate ticked slightly higher to 4.5% as expected, while Claimant Count Change in April rose far less than expected, rising to just 5.2K. However, the figure still wasn’t as good as March’s -16.9K contraction in the number of newly-unemployed workers. On the US side, CPI inflation eased slightly in April, with annualized headline inflation falling to a fresh three-year low. However, the Trump administration’s trade strategy of imposing triple-digit tariffs on its own major trading partners is expected to come home to roost beginning in May, and market experts are broadly expecting this to be the last decent CPI print for a while.
Pound Sterling markets will be waiting until Thursday for the latest batch of UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth figures for the first quarter. Median market forecasts are expecting an upswing in QoQ GDP, anticipating Q1 GDP to rise to 0.6% QoQ versus the previous quarter’s 0.1%. On an annualized basis, forecasts expect last year’s GDP slump to still impact the data, forecasting QoY GDP to ease to 1.2% from 1.5%.
US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation figures and the University of Michigan’s latest Consumer Sentiment Survey are also slated for the back half of the trading week. US PPI inflation will be printing on Thursday, with key consumer sentiment figures due on Friday.
GBP/USD price forecast
GBP/USD’s bullish reversal puts the pair on pace to enter a rough congestion pattern in the near-term. Price action has been in a choppy phase since slipping back from recent highs near 1.3450, but bearish momentum has been struggling to drag bids back down to the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.3100.
GBP/USD daily chart
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