GBP/USD attempts another rebound, but technical ceiling remains

GBP/USD bounced half of a percent on Thursday.

Trade concerns are on the rise, but Pound traders are shrugging off tariff risks.

Key US inflation data looms ahead on Friday, but first UK GDP growth and Retail Sales.

GBP/USD found the gas pedal on Thursday, rallying one-half of one percent and climbing back over 1.2900. The 1.3000 major price handle remains out of reach for Pound bidders, but the fight against a downside pullback resumes.

UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer warned on Thursday that while US tariffs will be “crippling” to the UK economy, policymakers remain committed to fighting back against US President Donald Trump’s lopsided approach to global trade policy. PM Starmer’s comments matched similar intonations from Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney as most of the US’s former trading partners turn increasingly hostile on trade talks with the Trump administration.

The next batch of key UK data will be Friday’s final Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Retail Sales updates. UK GDP growth is expected to match the previous figures during the fourth quarter of 2024, but Retail Sales figures are expected to contract slightly in February.

US GDP growth figures are also due on Thursday, but the non-preliminary print is unlikely to drive much momentum in either direction. This week’s key US data release will be Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) inflation due on Friday. Investors will be hoping that a recent upturn in inflation figures will prove to be temporary, but median forecasts are expecting annualized PCE inflation to rise to 2.7% YoY in February.

GBP/USD price forecast

Despite a near-term uptick in bidding pressure, GBP/USD remains capped below the 1.3000 major price handle. Downside momentum remains limited, and buyers remain on the books, keeping Cable bolstered above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.2720.

GBP/USD daily chart