Australian Dollar remains subdued following RBA Meeting Minutes, China's Manufacturing PMI

• The Australian Dollar faced losses after the publication of the RBA Minutes from its May monetary policy meeting.

• China's Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index contracted to 48.3 in May, against a 50.4 expansion in April.

• The US Dollar recovered some losses despite growing concerns regarding stagflation in the United States.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) depreciated against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday after registering around 1% gains in the previous session. The AUD/USD pair remains subdued following the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Meeting Minutes.

RBA Minutes of its May monetary policy meeting suggested that the board viewed the case for a 25 basis point cut as a stronger one, preferring a policy to be cautious and predictable. The policymakers highlighted that US trade policy posed a significant and adverse impact on the global outlook, but had not yet affected the Australian economy, however, they did not persuade that a 50 bps was needed.

China's Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) unexpectedly fell to 48.3 in May from 50.4 in April, falling short of the market expectations of a 50.6 expansion. However, the weekend data showed that the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5 in May, from April’s 49.0 reading. Meanwhile, the Non-Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.3 from the previous 50.4 figure, falling short of the expected reading of 50.6. The Aussie Dollar could be impacted by Chinese economic data as both countries are close trading partners.

However, the AUD/USD pair may regain its ground as the Greenback may continue to struggle amid rising fears over slow growth and renewed inflation in the United States (US). US President Donald Trump threatened to double import tariffs on steel and aluminum, increasing them to 50% from 25%, effective Wednesday.

Australian Dollar depreciates as US Dollar recovers despite rising economic concerns 

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the Greenback against six major currencies, is trading higher near 98.80 at the time of writing. Traders would likely observe the release of the JOLTs Job Openings later on Tuesday.

Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index eased to 48.5 in May from 48.7 in April. This figure came in weaker than the expectation of 49.5.

US President Donald Trump said at a rally in Pennsylvania on Friday that he planned to double import tariffs on steel and aluminum to build up pressure on global steel producers and intensify the trade war. "We are going to be imposing a 25% increase. We're going to bring it from 25% to 50% - the tariffs on steel into the United States of America, which will even further secure the steel industry in the United States," he said, per Reuters.

The US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington, on Thursday, temporarily put a hold on a federal court ruling and allowed President Trump's tariffs to take effect. On Wednesday, a three-judge panel at the Court of International Trade in Manhattan halted Trump from imposing "Liberation Day" tariffs from taking effect. The federal court found that Trump exceeded his authority in imposing broad import tariffs and declared the executive orders issued on April 2 unlawful.

House Republicans passed Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” a multitrillion-dollar tax and spending package, which could increase the US fiscal deficit, along with the risk of bond yields staying higher for longer. This scenario raises concerns over the US economy and prompts traders to sell American assets under the “Sell America” trend. Policy experts anticipate Senate changes as GOP lawmakers aim to finalize the “big bill” by July 4.

On Friday, Trump accused China of breaching a truce on tariffs reached earlier this month. Washington and Beijing agreed to temporarily lower reciprocal tariffs in a meeting in Geneva. Trump said that China had "totally violated its agreement with us". US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer also said that China had failed to remove non-tariff barriers as agreed.

In response, a spokesperson from China’s Ministry of Commerce said on Monday that China had complied with the agreement by cancelling or suspending relevant tariff and non-tariff measures aimed at US "reciprocal tariffs."

ANZ Job Advertisements declined by 1.2% in May, following a revised 0.3% fall in the previous month. The Australian job ads drop for the second consecutive month. Moreover, S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined to 51.0 in May from 51.7 prior, dropping for the second straight month to the lowest level since February.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to deliver more rate cuts in the upcoming policy meetings. The central bank acknowledged progress in curbing inflation and warned that US-China trade barriers pose downside risks to economic growth. Governor Michele Bullock stated that the RBA is prepared to take additional action if the economic outlook deteriorates sharply, raising the prospect of future rate cuts.

Australian Dollar falls toward nine-day EMA near 0.6450

AUD/USD is trading around 0.6468 on Tuesday, suggesting a persistent bullish bias. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the pair remains within the ascending channel pattern. The short-term price momentum strengthens as the pair stays above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned above the 50 mark, suggesting a strengthening bullish bias.

The AUD/USD pair could find an initial barrier at 0.6537, a seven-month high recorded on May 26. A break above this crucial resistance zone could reinforce the bullish bias and support the pair to explore the region around the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6660.

On the downside, the primary support appears at the nine-day EMA of 0.6456, followed by the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 0.6450. A break below this crucial support zone could weaken the bullish bias and lead the AUD/USD pair to test the 50-day EMA at 0.6393.

AUD/USD: Daily Chart