EUR/USD churns on indecisive Tuesday

• EUR/USD held off further losses, but gains remain absent.

• Fed Meeting Minutes due on Wednesday to draw investor attention.

• Traders will be looking for good news on Thursday’s US CPI inflation update.

EUR/USD held steady on Tuesday, failing to recapture the 1.1000 handle but arresting Fiber’s recent backslide from the 1.1200 region. The Euro has shed two and a third of a percent against the US Dollar since reaching a one-year peak in late September, tumbling back into the 1.0950 region as markets bid the Greenback higher across the board.

European data remains on the tepid side for most of the trading week. The European Central Bank (ECB) is set for another rate call next week, leaving the economic calendar largely clear of pan-EU data until then.

The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest Meeting Minutes from the September rate cut meeting will be released on Wednesday, giving Greenback traders plenty to chew on. Markets widely hoped for a follow-up double rate cut in November after the Fed blew the doors open with a jumbo 50 bps rate trim in September. However, core inflation still holding above Fed target levels and US labor figures that wildly outran expectations last week have firmly depressed rate cut hopefuls. 

According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets see nearly 90% odds that the Fed will follow up September’s jumbo 50 bps rate cut with a more modest 25 bps on November 7. Fed officials widely telegraphed that a weakening in the US labor market would be required to push the Federal Reserve into further outsized rate trims.

In addition, another round of US inflation figures is due on Thursday, with the release of September’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI). Core US CPI is expected to ease to 0.2% MoM from the previous 0.3%, while annualized headline CPI inflation is forecast to tick down to 2.3% YoY from the previous 2.5%.

EUR/USD price forecast

Fiber looks set to enter a bit of a sideways grind as daily candlesticks set up a consolidation pattern. The pair is trading in the dead zone between the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), but buyers are struggling to rebound after EUR/USD’s belly flop from north of the 1.1200 handle.

As long as sellers have run out of momentum, Euro bulls won’t have anything to fear from the 200-day EMA near 1.0900, while an extended bearish slide will send Fiber clattering back into 2024 lows near 1.0600.

EUR/USD daily chart