■ EUR/USD remains capped below 1.0950 as market look for a reason to move.
■ Key US inflation data due in the midweek to set the tone.
■ EU GDP growth figures also on the docket this week.
EUR/USD continued to churn chart paper just south of 1.0950 as markets settle in for the wait to Wednesday’s key US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation print. US Producer Price Index (PPI) business-level inflation figures are on the docket for Tuesday, and markets are hoping for a continued easing in structural inflation pressures. Core PPI for the year ended in July is forecast to ease to 2.7% from the previous 3.0%.
Forex Today: US Producer Prices… for starters
Wednesday’s YoY core CPI inflation is likewise expected to tick down to 3.2% from the previous 3.3%. Markets have trapped themselves in a Goldilocks forecast scenario; if CPI comes in too high, market sentiment will take a hit. On the other hand, if CPI comes in too low, it could spark another fear-fueled pullback, leaving the only topside option available to equities a soft but not too soft inflation print.
Rate markets have eased back on bets of a double-cut in September, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool. Rate traders now see less than 50% odds of a 50-bps cut on September 18, down from last week’s 70% odds. Despite the chill in bets for a double-cut, rate markets are still pricing in 100% odds of at least a 25-bps cut from the Fed in September.
Pan-EU Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures are due early Wednesday, with headline growth figures forecast to hold steady at previous levels, and that will wrap up the Euro’s meaningful representation on the economic calendar this week.
EUR/USD price forecast
Fiber continues to trade on the high side of a rough descending channel that has weighed on EUR/USD for the duration of 2024. The pair is holding just outside of recent technical ceiling barriers, but bullish momentum remains crimped below 1.1000.
A rising pattern of higher lows is solidifying on daily candlesticks, but EUR/USD is still poised for another dip back into the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.0800 if bidders don’t return to the fold and get EUR/USD bolstered into fresh near-term highs.
EUR/USD daily chart
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