EUR/USD: Cautious optimism over a Ukraine peace deal – OCBC

Euro (EUR) continued to drift higher vs the US Dollar (USD) on prospects of a Ukraine peace deal and on news of a delay in reciprocal tariffs. EUR was last seen at 1.0479. Tariff concerns remain and appears to open up EU’s willingness to negotiate, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Daily momentum is mild bullish

"At the Munich Security Conference on Fri, European Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, Maroš Šefčovič said that Brussels is ready to discuss 'anything' to avoid Trump’s tariff on European exports. He mentioned that Brussels is willing to reduce its substantial surplus in goods and services with the US, which reached €50 billion last year and has also signalled that the EU is ready to reduce its 10% tariff rate on cars, which is four times higher than the US rate."

"He also indicated that the EU could boost purchases of US goods such as LNG and soybeans. EU officials confirmed that Šefčovič will travel to Washington on Monday to hold talks with senior Trump administration officials, including Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick, trade representative nominee Jamieson Greer, and National Economic Council chief Kevin Hassett. "

"Daily momentum is mild bullish while RSI rose. Immediate resistance at 1.05, 1.0540 levels. Break-out puts next resistance at 1.0570 (38.2% fibo retracement of Sep high to Jan low, 100 DMA), 1.0620 levels. Support at 1.0390 (21, 50 DMAs), 1.03 levels."