Standard Chartered warns that U.S. banks may lose up to $500 billion to stablecoins by 2028

A new analysis by Standard Chartered projects that U.S. banking institutions will lose upwards of $500 billion to U.S.-dollar-backed stablecoins by the end of 2028. The Standard Chartered Bank research found that regional U.S. banks would be most exposed to deposit losses from stablecoins.

U.S. banks have grown increasingly concerned about stablecoin development in the jurisdiction. A new analysis compiled by Standard Chartered Bank revealed that the U.S. banking sector will lose upwards of $500 billion to dollar-backed stablecoins. According to the report, regional banks will be more exposed to deposit losses as yield-bearing stablecoins continue to gain momentum.

Standard Chartered is concerned about stablecoins impact on the banking sector

Standard Chartered researchers based their research and analysis on lenders’ net interest margin, which is the difference between what a bank pays out on deposits and what it earns on loans. Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital ‌assets research at Standard Chartered, said that the U.S. banking sector faces “a threat as payment networks and other core banking activities shift to stablecoins.” The Standard Chartered analysis could reignite a war between crypto companies and banking institutions as regulations in the U.S. begin to take course. 

The U.S. government, under the Trump administration, passed the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act in July, establishing a legal federal framework for the regulation of stablecoin issuance and use in the country. The framework positioned America as a global leader in crypto asset litigation by recognizing dollar-backed stablecoins and dismissing risky algorithmic stablecoins that have a history of collapse.

The regulation was heavily welcomed by crypto companies, especially stablecoin issuers who had suffered under heightened regulatory scrutiny from the previous Biden-Harris administration. However, the stablecoin act has created serious concerns that the dollar-pegged crypto assets may jeopardise the U.S. banking system.  

Although the GENIUS Act prohibits stablecoin issuers from offering any interest on issued stablecoins, banks say it left open a loophole that allows third parties, such as crypto exchanges, to offer yields on stablecoin deposits. Banks argue that the loopholes create new competition in their sector, which heavily relies on bank deposits to operate under the fractional-reserve banking system.

A previous cryptopolitan report highlighted that leaders of the banking industry believe they could create a form of unregulated parallel banking that destabilizes the economy by drawing depositors away from the banking system. Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said in January that up to $6 trillion in bank deposits (approximately 30%-35% of total U.S. commercial bank deposits) could shift to the stablecoin market if Congress approves yield-bearing stablecoins.

Crypto companies push back on bank run concerns

However, crypto companies disagree with the idea and have aggressively pushed back on the claims, arguing that barring them from paying interest on stablecoins would be anti-competitive. Circle’s CEO, Jeremy Allaire, said that stablecoins do not threaten financial stability while speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos. 

He highlighted that government money market funds offer yields on deposits and coexist with traditional banking institutions without posing a threat to credit markets or the broader financial sector, as banks initially claimed. The Senate Banking Committee postponed its vote on the Crypto market structure bill earlier this month to address concerns over “possible” bank runs. 

The news comes after Tether received regulatory green light to offer stablecoin services in the U.S. On January 27, Tether announced the launch of USA₮, a dollar-pegged stablecoin tailored for the U.S. market. The stablecoin issuer announced that USA₮ is regulated federally under the GENIUS Act. 

The launch strategically aligns with the increasing demand for stablecoin services in the U.S., which has primarily driven Circle’s growth. Before USA₮’s arrival, Circle’s USDC has been dominating the U.S. market. Reduced regulatory scrutiny and growing demand for stablecoins among U.S. institutions have fueled Circle’s growth. Circle’s USDC has outgrown Tether in two consecutive years, according to a previous report by Cryptopolitan.