Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC bears aim for $100k as escalation in Russia-Ukraine war sparks risk-off sentiment

• Bitcoin extends its decline on Monday after falling over 3% in the previous week.

• Market sentiment sours as the Russia-Ukraine war escalates, signaling weakness in risky assets like BTC.

• Bitcoin spot ETF inflow records a mild weekly outflow while MetaPlanet adds 1,088 BTC on Monday.

Bitcoin (BTC) is extending its decline on Monday, trading below $105,000 at the time of writing after falling over 3% last week. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization weakens as geopolitical tensions escalate, with the Russia-Ukraine conflict intensifying and driving investors toward safe-haven assets. Moreover, Bitcoin spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded a modest outflow last week, while MetaPlanet adds 1,088 BTC to its treasury.

Risk-on sentiment fades as geopolitical uncertainty increases

BBC reports on Monday that Ukraine completed its biggest long-range attack of the war with Russia on Sunday, targeting four airbases and damaging 40 Russian warplanes.

The covert operation, the so-called “Spider’s Web,” used 117 drones, striking 34% of Russia’s strategic cruise missile carriers, said Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Russia confirmed these attacks in five regions, calling them a “terrorist act,” reports BBC. 

The peace talks between the two countries are set to resume in Istanbul on Monday, but the likelihood of negotiations yielding meaningful progress toward ending the Russia-Ukraine war is slim. 

These rising war tensions and geopolitical uncertainties are driving investors toward safe-haven assets, such as Gold (XAU), which brings a risk-off sentiment to the market, not boding well for the Bitcoin price.

Institutional flow raises some early signs of concern 

Institutional demand for Bitcoin weakened last week. According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced a mild outflow of $157.40 million last week, marking a break in their long-standing weekly streak of inflows since mid-April. This outflow is weak as compared to the flow seen during Feburary. However, if this outflow intensifies, then the Bitcoin price could see a sharp decline in the upcoming days.

Total Bitcoin Spot ETFs weekly chart. Source: SoSoValue

Despite signs of weakness in Bitcoin ETFs, Japanese investment firm Metaplanet announced on Monday that it had purchased an additional 1,088 BTC. The firm currently holds a total of 8,888 BTC. If the corporate companies’ demand for BTC continues, it could act as a cushion for any price dips in Bitcoin prices.

What is there for Bitcoin in June?

Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $111,980 in May, marking a return of nearly 11% for the month. According to Bitcoin’s historical data, BTC generally yielded the second-lowest return for traders in June, averaging a loss of 0.30%. If the ETFs’ demand continues to weaken, holders realize profits (increasing selling pressure), and tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty gain momentum, traders should be cautious of a correction in June.

Bitcoin historical monthly returns chart. Source: Coinglass

Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC bears target $100k mark

Bitcoin price closed below the daily support level of $106,406 on Thursday and declined by 1.50% the following day. However, it recovered slightly during the weekend. At the time of writing on Monday, it trades below $105,500.

Suppose BTC faces resistance around the $106,406 daily level and continues its correction. It could extend the decline to revisit the psychologically important level of $100,000.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart reads 53, pointing downward toward its neutral level of 50, indicating fading bullish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also showed a bearish crossover last week. It also shows rising red histogram bars below its neutral level, indicating a correction ahead.

BTC/USDT daily chart

However, if BTC recovers and closes above $106,406, it could extend the rally toward its all-time high of $111,980.