Bitcoin Vs. Gold: Schiff Predicts A Catastrophic 85% BTC Drop—Details

A well-known American economist suggested a relationship between gold, NASDAQ and Bitcoin, saying that a decline in NASDAQ usually leads to a decrease in Bitcoin. 

Peter Schiff explained in a post the correlation between the state of Bitcoin and the market situation of NASDAQ, adding that there is a negative relationship between gold and NASDAQ.

NASDAQ-Bitcoin Connection

Schiff, a renowned Bitcoin skeptic, told his followers on X that the bearish condition of the financial market might influence the price movement of the flagship crypto, saying that if NASDAQ goes down, Bitcoin follows.

The economist said that currently, NASDAQ is down 12%, and could affect Bitcoin. “If this correction turns out to be a bear market, and the correlation where a 12% decline in the NASDAQ equates to a 24% decline in Bitcoin holds, when the NASDAQ is down 20%, Bitcoin will be about $65K,” he added.

The NASDAQ is down 12%. If this correction turns out to be a bear market, and the correlation where a 12% decline in the NASDAQ equates to a 24% decline in Bitcoin holds, when the NASDAQ is down 20%, Bitcoin will be about $65K.

But if the NASDAQ goes into a bear market, history…

— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) March 16, 2025

However, Schiff argued that once NASDAQ entered a bear market, the decline would be much larger, citing what happened in the past.

He explained that after the bursting of the Dot-com bubble, NASDAQ plummeted by nearly 80% while during the 2008 global financial crisis, it dropped by 55%, and, recently, during the pandemic crash in 2020, NASDAQ went down by around 30%.

“The average of those three bear markets is a 55% decline. If this bear market bottoms with just a 40% decline, that would put Bitcoin at about $20K. However, my bet would be that a drop of that magnitude would accelerate Bitcoin’s collapse to much lower levels,” he added.

Yellow Metal Continues To Shine

Schiff might have a bearish outlook on Bitcoin but offered a more optimistic view on gold, saying there is a negative relationship between NASDAQ and gold. 

He said that since the NASDAQ peaked on December 16, 2023, gold has increased by 13%, which is an almost perfect 1-to-1 correlation.

“If that correlation holds too, a 40% drop in the NASDAQ would put gold over $3,800. However, my guess is that if a bear market in stocks coincides with a significant decline in the dollar on foreign exchange markets, gold will rise much higher,” he explained in a post.

Gold-Bitcoin Comparison

Schiff said that even if gold were at $3,800 gold and Bitcoin was at $20,000, in terms of gold, the firstborn crypto would decrease by 85%, adding that it would more likely end the comparison that Bitcoin is a store of value similar to gold.

“There will clearly be no justification for the US government or any state government to keep any Bitcoin in a Strategic Reserve. There will also be no reason for ETF investors to keep holding their positions either. With all that selling, it will be impossible for $MSTR to sell enough Bitcoin to avoid bankruptcy,” he said.

As of writing, Bitcoin is traded at $82,433 with a market cap of over $1.6 trillion.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView